Dewpoint Dan
Member
No need to be snarky. The poor dude has lived in AL and TX his whole life. Let him enjoy his first winter in the great white north.
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
BRO I’ve been thinking we need this thing in NAM range … first NAMing??
Hmmm ? 
Good look for our friends in Eastern TN and NW GA.
Move that low about 75-100 miles east and put a big blue H over Pennsylvania and maybe we’re in business
Odd evolution of the rain stalling west of the mtns, any increase in timing, or upslope, could easily generate some wintry mix to cold rain for a good deal of people after seeing low temps in the 20s prior…would like some sleet.
CMC much colder with temps in the teens east of the mtns. More than enough cold dry air getting trapped at the surface IF precip makes it to the surface it’s gonna be a MIX of rain/sleet. I assume modeled evolution of rain is shunted west with all this cold dry air getting locked into areas east of the mtns.
NoSnowATL
Member
All I see is 32-35 rain.
It will scorch above ⬆ on the models but even Alabama-Mississippi-Tennessee-Georgia areas look somewhat prime of onset mix before rain due to prior cold mornings.
This doesn’t really scream onset Wilkes, can ofc change tho
9 times out of 10 global models can’t see ground truth conditions near the surface after a cold blast. A lot will weigh on how cold we actually get. If the CMC is right, it’s almost a given >95% of onset sleet to just all rain. It’s hard to go from teens to rain with skipping the onset sleet but it is possible.
CMC too cold but CAD regions can’t recover quick enough even if the GFS is right. Quick ? to ? 
Low placement is good though.
NoSnowATL
Member
Building up our source region ??
Brent
Member
Hmmm a stay tuned for Thanksgiving from the same TV met yesterday who said no snow. modernweenie
Of course the GFS didn't have anything ?
Of course the GFS didn't have anything ?
Wtf 
It’s just to early and lacking much of a cold source for this nice look at H5.
GFS came back with the super cold day next Tuesday. Lots of low 40s and breezy too
Almost a guarantee we don’t sniff anything close to those heights up around Greenland in a couple months when it actually matters.
Brent
Member
Yeah I gotta be honest I'm not really buying into it here even. I'm just not sure it's gonna line up right. It is still November after all.
1081? ?
Really impressive. Will be shocked if some of the higher elevations don’t accumulate on the backend with something like this.
Looking at models for the first time this season tonight. Lock this pacific look in at 500mb and realistically we would be breaking SE heat records sometime down the road
I dont know still Big blocking over head I think will continue to shunt that SER
Brent
Member
The 384 hour GFS looks good... In December (?)
Of course it's 384 hours ?
Of course it's 384 hours ?
I wouldn’t be surprised if we can’t try to squeeze some flurries under this thing
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I hate to break it to you, but all of that "build up" to our north will very likely go to waste because the Pacific is straight trash. The +EPO will flood the entire continent w/ mild Pacific air, our already often benign continental polar air masses won't have much, if any punch with them and a lot of that snow cover to the north will probably melt..
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I wouldn't count on it, unless you're in the mtns because the atmosphere is absolutely bone dry behind the front. You'll actually have drier air than me, although I'm in a desert.
The pattern really only favors 5minute onset sleet due to all the dry air or high elevation MTN snow. Largely cold rain pattern for all.
And not a lot of cold rain either. I wouldn’t be surprised if Charlotte changes from moderate drought to severe drought. GFS favors more rain in the desert of New Mexico than Charlotte NC metro.
NCSNOW
Member
Birdman you are spot on. This is the genesis of a drought all thanks to La nina. Ill be suprised if we dont avg below normal qpf for the winter months. As we roll into late spring/summer is where the BN qpf for winter will start catching folks attn. How it got started back before 2007 I beleive.
Wx Cycles come and go. We've been blessed on the qpf for the past several years now. Hopefully I'm wrong, but hard to keep ignoring this evoloution thats started over the past several weeks. Fronts are dry, not generating anything when they roll through. Be lucky to squeeze .10 out of this one. Course you go down to GAWX area, they had nice coastal a week or two ago fill up the ole watershed.
Wx Cycles come and go. We've been blessed on the qpf for the past several years now. Hopefully I'm wrong, but hard to keep ignoring this evoloution thats started over the past several weeks. Fronts are dry, not generating anything when they roll through. Be lucky to squeeze .10 out of this one. Course you go down to GAWX area, they had nice coastal a week or two ago fill up the ole watershed.
See what looks like towering cumulus this morning to the south
NCSNOW
Member
If you want to see snow in NC. GFS says Get in your boat and ride out to the gulf stream lol. It'll snow out there before it does inland this season. How we Roll!
Trough is too far NE and we are too dry 900-700mb.
It's circling the Wake Co rainforest
That would be too awesome