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Pattern Novemburrr

NickyBGuarantee said:
Same comment applies but go off ?
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No, not at all actually. A day 11-15 ensemble mean that agrees w/ the other 2 major ensemble means (see earlier comment in this thread) has a lot more weight than the operational GFS you thought Judah was talking about. If the GFS Ensemble was showing a cold/snowy pattern you probably would be singing a much different tune.
 
A lot of the pieces are definitely (still) generally there for cold air damming after Thanksgiving, the cut-off upper low near Baja California I've been watching closely for my own forecasts out here has been varying wildly from run-to-run in the models.

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SD said:
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Come on ridge
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Need that little trough out in the Pacific to move east of HI. Blocking looks good. Looks like nice fall weather for the east. That will be pleasant.

Also, as long as the pattern isn't complete trash, there's no need to worry about it taking weeks to get cold in the SE. If things reshuffle correctly, it will get cold in a matter of days. It's really not all that far away.

Lastly, a winter storm in early December is quite unlikely. It would be nice, but I wouldn't worry too much about it. A few tweaks out in the Pacific, come mid/late December, we could be looking at a true, legitimate opportunity.
 
First real chance of snow around here may be on the way around Thanksgiving. Likely going to be cold rain in the basin/valley areas, may have to go chasing in the mountains to see anything substantial, barring the upper low even gets close enough to produce precip here to begin w/

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Webberweather53 said:
First real chance of snow around here may be on the way around Thanksgiving. Likely going to be cold rain in the basin/valley areas, may have to go chasing in the mountains to see anything substantial, barring the upper low even gets close enough to produce precip here to begin w/

1638532800-lrZxqen5XTg.png
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Hell. let's move to Northern Mexico.
 
-NAO can sometimes be hard to budge once it gets hold. Kind of what happened last year. Of course it is not the only factor but a strong enough -NAO can sometimes overwhelm the pattern to a extent. Would like to see the pacific get in better shape though. But as we get deeper into winter a -NAO can help big time sometimes. Hoping for the best.
 
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