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Pattern November Knock-Out

SimeonNC said:
Okay I'm getting mixed signals here, from what I'm hearing from American, the weeklies keep the blocking signal and the good pattern. From what I'm hearing here, the weeklies are dumpster fire.
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Pick your weeklies, I guess. Haven't seen the Euro, but CFSv2 is not pretty ... but has it ever been? The latter is not one worth relying on as a stand alone.
 
pcbjr said:
Pick your weeklies, I guess. Haven't seen the Euro, but CFSv2 is not pretty ... but has it ever been? The latter is not one worth relying on as a stand alone.
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No doubt that the Euro looks better for SE US cold than the CFS with a +PNA/-NAO tendency for most of the post day 15 period.
 
SimeonNC said:
Here we go, hoping for a weenie run.
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Im not saying we will get one, im saying with the "potential" artic air mass in place, i wouldn't be suprise if there was a storm thats pops up. Usually when theres a substantial air mass in place you get something of some sort to show on modles.
 
This time last year all of East Tennessee was on fire... I'm just happy we're having a more 'normal' Fall this year.
 
Today felt great! The rain departed earlier this morning and we hung out at 53-54 all afternoon. Down to 43 this hour. Looks like we can kiss the warmth bye bye for a while now at least.. my warmest temperature the next 10 days is 66 and that's next friday before a front it appears as saturday is showing 55 and partly cloudy. Nice wedge this weekend as well!
 
500h_anom.na.png


Fantasy range :weenie::weenie:
 
CFS monthlies looking okay for Jan/Feb... think that model is just slow as a sloth to any kind of major regional changes.. 00z CMC is faster with the fronts than Gfs whatever that means. Curious to see if tonight's Euro goes as strong on cold at the 10 day range.
 
yeah, yeah, euro, quit your crazy moods... she eased up a bit.
 
6Z GFS , still looking chilly leading up to Thanksgiving!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yummy... Euro weeklies are cold and dry thru the end of the month but I can live w/ that in November and December especially considering how crappy the last several Novembers and Decembers have been in the SE US... Anything beats 80s near Christmas
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agree with you with 80 s xmas suck.... but i am ready for little action to be honest... seems like trough just been to far east lately... im ready for a winter storm i know its bit earlyfor that perhaps, or give me some severe weather action which i love more.... that why kind intrigued a/bout late january going into february for my area especially for severe wx action during nina enso....
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yummy... Euro weeklies are cold and dry thru the end of the month but I can live w/ that in November and December especially considering how crappy the last several Novembers and Decembers have been in the SE US... Anything beats 80s near Christmas
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If December ends up colder than normal or even normal I consider that a win compared to the last couple years. Also, I think you would be the first one to call for a colder December if I'm not mistaken.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yummy... Euro weeklies are cold and dry thru the end of the month but I can live w/ that in November and December especially considering how crappy the last several Novembers and Decembers have been in the SE US... Anything beats 80s near Christmas
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That's what has me more pumped up than anything, finally a Thanksgiving that's not hot.
 
Goofy sure is toasty for Thanksgiving (Not).

It may not be this cold but it sure looks like we'll finally have a chilly Thanksgiving.
 
Those GFS maps look really strange with the new heat island factor for Atlanta. Even with that calculated one would assume the city will be colder than what is depicted. The map shows south GA as being colder so that doesn't look right.
 
Well as noted a week or so ago we would need a dramatic turnaround mid late month to get us below average and it's nice to see for once this is finally coming to fruition. Virtually all NWP busted horribly on their depiction of the SE US ridge in week 2, I think this attributable poorly forecast and sudden poleward surge of -AAM (which initially accompanied the Pacific MJO pulse) that has decelerated the mid latitude westerly jet and has effectively made the background more favorable for blocking by slowing the flow (which due to the thermal wind and hypsometric relations requires a more gently sloped meridional temperature and height gradient that's associated with the negative phase of the AO and NAO). Due to the large size of the quasi stationary anomalous Aleutian high that was excited by a pair of typhoon recurvatures and augmented by the background state, this ridge will have enough planetary vorticity advection to retrograde westward towards eastern Siberia. The downstream alterations in the placement of the planetary waves over North America due to this retrogression should make the pattern more favorable for cyclonic wave breaking over the eastern seaboard (& the thus anticyclonic wave breaking in the far North Atlantic) which will only further aid in establishing blocking over Greenland and northeastern Canada
 
Webber, do you think this type of blocking could repeat through winter or are you seeing this being more of a Nov/Dec time frame for now?
 
"Due to the large size of the quasi stationary anomalous Aleutian high that was excited by a pair of typhoon recurvatures and augmented by the background state"

I'm thinking we won't see too many typhoons in January/February so, "transient" and no repeats would be the answer? I hope not, though.
 
Nina winters are known for abrupt ends to cold weather, but we just gotta hope that the abrupt end at least is after some portion of the most favorable time for winter storms in the southeast. Like, if the abrupt end is after the 2nd week of February we've covered the most favorable ground, which is January-mid February.

I don't think it'll be that long though unfortunately.
 
tennessee storm said:
whats to come?... sure it be heartache and disappointment ... think I pass ....
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You can predict the future? Awesome! Why don't you just enjoy the next couple of cold shots, if it warms up afterwards, oh well! The cold shot coming near Thanksgiving will be colder than anything I had all last winter, so I'd be good with that and call it a winter
 
pcbjr said:
I just wish for a minor blessing (not even a miracle) --> that the trees go dormant this winter ... been 3 years and that just isn't right ... :confused:
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Agreed! Maybe my summer annuals will die this winter!? They didn't last year!
 
NCSNOW said:
Link to a free site posted on amx and its the heat, so try it out. Has everymodel known to man and you can zoom right into your own backyard practically to see 850,500 temps, rh forecasted levels etc.

Weather.Us
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Pretty cool site! Thanks for sharing!
 
As giddy as anyone here, but a word of advice - nothing is set in stone and looks will likely change a few times before we get to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Check out the 12Z Euro, for example. Hopefully things swing around and lock in a good manner for all, but just sayin' ... don't count chickens (or turkeys) quite yet ... :eek:
But it's quite OK to gobble a bit right now ... ;)
Respectfully,
The Curmudgeon
 
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