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Pattern November Knock-Out

pcbjr said:
As giddy as anyone here, but a word of advice - nothing is set in stone and looks will likely change a few times before we get to the Thanksgiving Holiday. Check out the 12Z Euro, for example. Hopefully things swing around and lock in a good manner for all, but just sayin' ... don't count chickens (or turkeys) quite yet ... :eek:
But it's quite OK to gobble a bit right now ... ;)
Respectfully,
The Curmudgeon
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What is 12z Euro showing?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What is 12z Euro showing?
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Not as deep as yesterday - model swings - cool but not as brutal. Still good, just not as pronounced.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh240-240.gif


For comparison ... http://www.southernwx.com/community/threads/november-knock-out.283/page-16#post-53391
 
GaStorm said:
Those GFS maps look really strange with the new heat island factor for Atlanta. Even with that calculated one would assume the city will be colder than what is depicted. The map shows south GA as being colder so that doesn't look right.
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Actually, I think that would be reasonable map because it is on an almost perfect radiational cooling night with a surface high overhead/calm winds/dry air/clear skies, when heat islands make the biggest difference for lows. In contrast, south GA rural locations and even SAV(a well inland airport) often radiate better during these kind of nights and allow them to have lows colder than downtown Atlanta and certainly ATL airport (KATL). They have SAV at 31, while they have downtown near 33...that's very believable. Where I don't think is cold enough is the radiational cooling capital of the ATL area, Peachtree City (KFFC), which they have only going down to 29 with a dewpoint in the teens. I'd expect them to get to near 25 and be near the coldest in GA. But that's way too microscale for the GFS. Another constant microscale related error: ATL airport (KATL), which is often the warmest in the state. They have KATL getting down to 29, which is the same as KFFC and KPDK ( in NE ATL burbs), because the heat island bubble being shown is just to their north in town. There's no way that relationship would verify. I could see KATL being, say, 34, KPDK being, say, 29, and KFFC being, say, 25 (and KSAV at 31).
 
GaWx said:
Actually, I think that would be reasonable map because it is on an almost perfect radiational cooling night with a surface high overhead/calm winds/dry air/clear skies, when heat islands make the biggest difference for lows. In contrast, south GA rural locations and even SAV(a well inland airport) often radiate better during these kind of nights and allow them to have lows colder than downtown Atlanta and certainly ATL airport (KATL). They have SAV at 31, while they have downtown near 33...that's very believable. Where I don't think is cold enough is the radiational cooling capital of the ATL area, Peachtree City (KFFC), which they have only going down to 29 with a dewpoint in the teens. I'd expect them to get to near 25 and be near the coldest in GA. But that's way too microscale for the GFS. Another constant microscale related error: ATL airport (KATL), which is often the warmest in the state. They have KATL getting down to 29, which is the same as KFFC and KPDK ( in NE ATL burbs), because the heat island bubble being shown is just to their north in town. There's no way that relationship would verify. I could see KATL being, say, 34, KPDK being, say, 29, and KFFC being, say, 25 (and KSAV at 31).
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While that makes sense I could see some scenarios where it will bust bad like with a wedge for example. Don't know if they adjusted for the CAD events or not?
 
GaStorm said:
While that makes sense I could see some scenarios where it will bust bad like with a wedge for example. Don't know if they adjusted for the CAD events or not?
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If there's a wedge or any other windy setup, overcast skies, or high RH, no model should ever be showing a heat island bubble. During strong wedging, KATL/downtown is often just about as cold as anywhere nearby with pretty uniform temp.'s as you are implying.

To answer your question to some extent, look at the 12Z GFS hour 18's heat island bubble. That looks questionable due to a pretty decent east wind blowing then.
 
GaWx said:
If there's a wedge or any other windy setup, overcast skies, or high RH, no model should ever be showing a heat island bubble. During strong wedging, KATL/downtown is often just about as cold as anywhere nearby with pretty uniform temp.'s as you are implying.

To answer your question to some extent, look at the 12Z GFS hour 18's heat island bubble. That looks questionable due to a pretty decent east wind blowing then.
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Yeah that does look questionable. Will be nice to see temps bust too high for a change. Lol.
 
NCSNOW said:
Link to a free site posted on amx and its the heat, so try it out. Has everymodel known to man and you can zoom right into your own backyard practically to see 850,500 temps, rh forecasted levels etc.

Weather.Us
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MBell said:
Pretty cool site! Thanks for sharing!
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It's going to get a lot better. Ryan Maue is involved, now.
 
You don't seem too convinced there Tarheel
pcbjr said:
haw, haw, hawt
Webb,
Someone may confuse that for a torch ... LOL
Best!
Phil
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We now know hawt = potential and pants tent lol
 
I'm good with a late November/ early December wintry event! It could be 70 the rest of the winter, just to see snow on ground!
 
MMoore4720 said:
Being from Ohio, and have worked in -15+ degree (that's without windchill) enviroments. A below 32 month just doesn't sound fun. At all. I am all for the snow down here, good times are had by all.
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Yeah, I mostly hope for the impossible, lol. We had a Feb a few years back where it didn't get above 32 for something 10 days in 14, and that was Cold! A whole month would make you sit up and pay attention. Hard times ahead, lol. T
 
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SD said:
I'm beginning to dislike summer as well. It's fun until about July 4th then it's just misery.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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They like it because they are kids and can run around half naked. When you get my age you get arrested for stuff that looks great when you are 20, lol. The older I get the less I can take summer too, but then cold feels colder too, so I don't know what's going on, lol, T
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Seriously.... How did you survive before A/C ?
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I remember when I was a kid, dying in the heat, laying right next to an open window, with no breeze, and no window fans...don't even know if they were invented. My grandmother had a small electric table fan from the 30's, but the rest of us did what my mother told me to do....think cool thoughts, lol. Didn't work for shi*, lol. T
 
Ended up not really getting that cold last night because it got cloudy and was windy. Still, high 40s and wind late in the morning made it nippy (the low was just 43).
 
AO trending - , PNA trending +, NAO trending -, this would suggest a stormy east coast with some snow after cold front passages across the Appalachian mtns and some snow across the northeastern US.

Even though the 8-14 outlook is suggesting drier than normal conditions across the majority of the east. I'd expect that to change on future outlooks from NOAA.
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