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Pattern November Knock-Out

accu35 said:
In a hurry, cant post image but someone will be very happy in the southeast end of month if this trend continues
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The fun begins at 210.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_35.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_46.png
gfs_T2m_seus_51.png
 
Happy Thanksgiving!!
 
Could be some snow on some of the turkeys out there. If it does snow in the mountains I will probably make a trip up there to see it.
 
I get it we are looking at 9-10+ day maps but the GEFS again concurs and this don't change much through the end of the run....
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_44.png
 
sigwx said:
What time does the Euro Ensembles come out. This time change always screws me up:rolleyes:
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Should be done by 4 or so, I believe
 
Love me some models right now. Looks like a lot of cold air headed this way.


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tennessee storm said:
Can't believe folks think we're headed toward a snowy winter .... Lol come on now....
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Considering the much colder model outlooks vs how they looked 9 days ago when you made this post, do you still feel the same high confidence that it won't be a snowy winter? I'm not saying one way or the other about snow, which is often such a crapshoot in the SE US since it only takes one nice storm. The only thing I can say is that we don't have the advantage of being in El Nino.
 
GaWx said:
Considering the much colder model outlooks vs how they looked 9 days ago when you made this post, do you still feel the same high confidence that it won't be a snowy winter? I'm not saying one way or the other about snow, which is often such a crapshoot in the SE US since it only takes one nice storm. The only thing I can say is that we don't have the advantage of being in El Nino.
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What happens in November, winter will remember!! Please winter remember this pattern in January! :)
 
Tarheel1 said:
What happens in November, winter will remember!! Please winter remember this pattern in January! :)
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I'm continuing with the hope that November will end up at least down to near normal. Based on the latest maps, a colder than normal Nov is not at all out of the question despite the warm 1st week. I know not all agree, but I still believe as I posted earlier that the colder it is this month, the slightly better it is for colder winter chances due to an apparent weak correlation.
 
GaWx said:
I'm continuing with the hope that November will end up at least down to near normal. Based on the latest maps, a colder than normal Nov is not at all out of the question despite the warm 1st week. I know not all agree, but I still believe as I posted earlier that the colder it is this month, the slightly better it is for colder winter chances due to an apparent weak correlation.
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Larry,
Truly hoping your belief is correct. Perhaps some of us just particularly remember the "bad" winters that started early and fizzled, and maybe that skews some folks' outlook. It does mine in any event, quite honestly. Personally, having lived down here all my life other than 7 years in South Bend, Indiana, I've got an unscientific recollection, not recorded on any Excel spreadsheet, of many winters ending real early when they started early. Sure, there are exceptions - 1963 and 1977 for example, but those seem to be special circumstances and not the rule. Anyways, this may shed a little light on the source of the doubt I at least have expressed. Hopefully it also conveys sincerest gratitude for your analysis and posts (which, btw, far surpass anything I could ever come up with ... ;)).
Whatever happens down the road with winter, it's great to have such a diverse group who can share ideas without getting defensive over their point of view versus that of someone else.
In any event, unlike some other years, it looks like we should get a winter this year ... :D
Enough from the soapbox ...
Best,
The Early Winter Curmudgeon

Edit: My early winter trepidation is really with late October snow; by Thanksgiving, the angst has largely dissipated ...
 
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NorthGaWinter4 said:
Supposedly weeklies have a -NAO/Ao for 5 weeks!!!?!
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I'd love to see that graphic and its source.
The main thing we need to keep an eye out on this year (IMHO) is the PNA ... things need to work in sync ...
Blocking is nice - just need something cool to cold to block ...
 
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Okay I'm getting mixed signals here, from what I'm hearing from American, the weeklies keep the blocking signal and the good pattern. From what I'm hearing here, the weeklies are dumpster fire.
 
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