• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

accu35 said:
I hope this winter will bring me some goods where im at, because if not ill have to chase.
Click to expand...
You'll get all the goods you can handle ,if your goods are heat! Won't have to chase at all! :)
 
Hrm, tonight's Euro and Gfs at 192 are as opposite as you can get:
gfs_T850a_us_33.png
ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png
 
whamby said:
Hrm, tonight's Euro and Gfs at 192 are as opposite as you can get:
gfs_T850a_us_33.png
ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png
Click to expand...
Yeah night and day. I want to pull more towards the Euro, because the gfs has been hinting at this back n forth for few days now. Plus its weenie in me, lol
 
accu35 said:
Yeah night and day. I want to pull more towards the Euro, because the gfs has been hinting at this back n forth for few days now. Plus its weenie in me, lol
Click to expand...
"Its the weenie in me" please dont take that in a different way
 
Hard to believe a cold air damming event like the one in December 1930 could drop this much snow in the NC piedmont. Apparently seems like it snowed for about 2.5 days straight over the Triad and Roxboro...
December-1930-Snowstorm-Snow-Map-and-SLP-animation.gif
 
End of the Euro run is setting up the west-central Piedmont and foothills with a formidable CAD.
ecmwf_mslpa_us_10.png

The Euro ensemble mean also has a pretty obvious CAD signature even in the 2 meter temperature anomalies which nose down through the Carolinas and GA east of the Apps.
eps_t850a_conus_35.png
 
Wow, look at how much colder is the 12Z GFS in days 5-8 for the E US vs all prior GFS runs! Anyone remember my posts from Tuesday about how much colder were that day's 2 Euro runs than the GFS for 11/9-10? Subsequently, the Euro warmed up before just recently cooling back down back in the direction of the Tue runs. Now all of the sudden, the new GFS is as cold, if not colder, vs those chilly Tue Euros for around 11/9-10!

*Edit: the much colder 12Z GEFS vs earlier GEFS runs is confirming that the much colder 12Z GFS operational is not an outlier.
 
Last edited:
Wow, I was thinking that the warm spell might end sooner than I thought, but so far the 12z GFS is....not what I expected. I just started looking at it because of Larry's comments.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Wow, I was thinking that the warm spell might end sooner than I thought, but so far the 12z GFS is....not what I expected. I just started looking at it because of Larry's comments.
Click to expand...

The 12Z GFS isn't suggesting the warm spell in the SE US would end earlier. Rather, it is suggesting similar timing of the end but that the change would be much colder than all earlier GFS runs were showing. For example, lows at ATL 11/10-11 are in the mid to uipper 30s vs them being high 40s to near 50 on earlier GFS runs. Plus this could be just the start of a trend to colder and colder runs. The NE US and Midwest still get the brunt of the cold on the 12Z. But again, it is much colder than earlier runs even down into the SE US as well as in the Midwest and NE.
 
Looks like a pretty big severe threat in the midwest this weekend. Currently an enhanced risk for areas of IL/IN/OH.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z GFS isn't suggesting the warm spell in the SE US would end earlier. Rather, it is suggesting similar timing of the end but that the change would be much colder than all earlier GFS runs were showing. For example, lows at ATL 11/10-11 are in the mid to uipper 30s vs them being high 40s to near 50 on earlier GFS runs. Plus this could be just the start of a trend to colder and colder runs. The NE US and Midwest still get the brunt of the cold on the 12Z. But again, it is much colder than earlier runs even down into the SE US as well as in the Midwest and NE.
Click to expand...

If you saw my earlier post, I acknowledged this possible end date earlier. It's just the surprise of the temps.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top