• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November Knock-Out

GaWx said:
JB tweeted about what the Brazilian model is showing for winter, which of course is wintry (when is it not?/cold bias). I notice that his recent tweets aren't suggesting anything about warmth this winter, including what he showed Joe D'Aleo is saying. I wish JB had credibility for being objective instead of being cold biased in winter. :(
Click to expand...
Lol have you actually kept track of each run change on that before? It changes so frequently and is so cherry picked its hilarious.
 
Storm5 said:
Holy hell the blocking showing up on the ensembles as we roll towards mid month . Looks somewhat sustainable, not a brief 2-3 day block
Click to expand...
Maybe we will get an early storm later this month, which would be interesting, but I don't know if it would be cold enough for one. It would fuel the hype trains and winter cancel trains too I bet.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol have you actually kept track of each run change on that before? It changes so frequently and is so cherry picked its hilarious.
Click to expand...

I don't keep track of it outside of when he shows it but have been assuming he cherry picks the coldest/snowiest runs. But i also believe it is a cold biased model based on some way out there extreme cold runs in past years that have had ridiculous things like practically an entire month under 32 for highs at KATL, which is way colder than any month on record there! It has to be cold biased with runs like that. Add in his assumed cherry picking of an already cold biased model and he can have so much fun with the Brazilian.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think it'll come down to timing. GSP boys saying Sunday night arrival of precip at the earliest, othe models saying Monday. It is looking like a very cold weekend for a lot of people, for sure
Click to expand...
I don't know if i'd call low to mid 60s very cold for November. That's the forecast for Birmingham this weekend !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I don't know if i'd call low to mid 60s very cold for November. That's the forecast for Birmingham this weekend !
Click to expand...
Like 14 times a year, Birmingham is not in the typical CAD areas!! Aleet! Aleet ! Pay attention
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CAD high is intensifying yet again on the past few euro runs. A 1036 over New England at this time of the year is pretty nuts. I'm really starting to think that someone in central NC will at least see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain this weekend...
View attachment 1515
Click to expand...
Doesn't quite make it to B'ham, maybe next time! :)
 
Those CAD events are really made for places to the east of me, so im more excited and hoping for a really cold substantial air mass end of month into December, to get our chances here in Alabama.
 
New 8-14 day outlook from NOAA

e10788b6349368ab828b606f09571dd2.gif
42c545de43fb4c0c3d5df231ed88fff1.gif


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
WeatherWatch said:
New 8-14 day outlook from NOAA

e10788b6349368ab828b606f09571dd2.gif
42c545de43fb4c0c3d5df231ed88fff1.gif


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Versus ...

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif


There's going to be some model wars and model disagreements going forward into this month. Which solution gets "November Knocked-out"? We'll see! *
One thing I'd really like to say, though, is despite differing outlooks and opinions, today has been an absolutely stellar day for discussion and observation here. :D
Thanks, Folks! ;)
Best!
Phil

* I have my theories, but based on my success last year, if I were a gambler, all my money would go against what I think at this point in time ... LOL ... :eek:
 
Last edited:
Tarheel1 said:
Like 14 times a year, Birmingham is not in the typical CAD areas!! Aleet! Aleet ! Pay attention
Click to expand...

Yep! Heck I forgot the temp differential but I remember with an ice storm quite a while ago (January 2004), I remember even just looking at the Atlanta temps comparing to here it was quite different. When it comes to CAD you can toss anything typical out the window.

(in fact, I'll go look that up, as it's an interesting difference)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Yep! Heck I forgot the temp differential but I remember with an ice storm quite a while ago (January 2004), I remember even just looking at the Atlanta temps comparing to here it was quite different. When it comes to CAD you can toss anything typical out the window.

(in fact, I'll go look that up, as it's an interesting difference)
Click to expand...
I think you mean January 2005. The CAD was very strong and there was a bad ice storm well into Alabama.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think you mean January 2005. The CAD was very strong and there was a bad ice storm well into Alabama.
Click to expand...

No, I truly do mean January 2004. I'm talking about a different CAD event that completely missed Atlanta and only affected northeast and far east Georgia.

And I was wrong. My comp was likely Birmingham. Atlanta was cold in this case but had very little precip.
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, what's ur thought on the long range with potential high latitude blocking developing in future?
Click to expand...
The Aleutian and Eurasian blocks are legit and will probably be around in some form through the cold season unfortunately they aren't really that positive for us. They do however favor a cold Canada and above normal snow cover for north America which could pay off for us at some point. I have my suspicions the -NAO on the models is real, I think, the elusive -NAO on the models is always met with skepticism so I have a hard time really getting pumped about it. If it materializes it would certainly make things around Thanksgiving interesting possibly into early December.
 
SD said:
The Aleutian and Eurasian blocks are legit and will probably be around in some form through the cold season unfortunately they aren't really that positive for us. They do however favor a cold Canada and above normal snow cover for north America which could pay off for us at some point. I have my suspicions the -NAO on the models is real, I think, the elusive -NAO on the models is always met with skepticism so I have a hard time really getting pumped about it. If it materializes it would certainly make things around Thanksgiving interesting possibly into early December.
Click to expand...
SD, one more thing. When will you put more stock into a true -NAO? What's your normal guideline for that? I think with an east based niña and -qbo descending through the 50mb level, it should be fairly interesting this winter IMO.
 
Geez..more records for ATL & Athens.
d46aa005679a095d20c3d2efd662c06d.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
Gonna be another warm one here too. I'm ok with that if it means we flip it later this month and into December
 
Mr. Golf said:
SD, one more thing. When will you put more stock into a true -NAO? What's your normal guideline for that? I think with an east based niña and -qbo descending through the 50mb level, it should be fairly interesting this winter IMO.
Click to expand...
Not trying to be funny but when it's in place or close. We have seen quite a few decent precursors to a -NAO only to see it fail miserably in recent years.
 
Gonna be a cold and wet day here. Good thing nothing lasts forever, even cold November rain.
 
pcbjr said:
And purely for whatever consideration anyone feels appropriate (or to the converse, inappropriate) ... https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/
But, we have to study all sides of the cue ball (que - pick your spelling) or you end up in the side pocket ... :confused:
Click to expand...

Thanks, Phil. There's reason to believe this winter will very likely come in much colder than last and at least be much closer to normal based merely on stats.

Now, regarding DT's recent record, one should keep in mind that DT's forecast last winter came in much too cold as he had each of D, J, and F average between colder than normal and near normal for much of the E US and that had similar ENSO a year ago today:

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalshort.pdf
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I don't keep track of it outside of when he shows it but have been assuming he cherry picks the coldest/snowiest runs. But i also believe it is a cold biased model based on some way out there extreme cold runs in past years that have had ridiculous things like practically an entire month under 32 for highs at KATL, which is way colder than any month on record there! It has to be cold biased with runs like that. Add in his assumed cherry picking of an already cold biased model and he can have so much fun with the Brazilian.
Click to expand...
I've waited for a below 32 month all my life, lol. Another Maunder minimum, please!! You pull one of those off in July, and it's probably snow city...although the afternoon thunderstorms might have some trouble forming in 32 degree weather, lol, but I've seen thunder snow, so I know it's possible. Sounds to me like we need a space program for weather analytics, and get some models where the mostly impossible is rare. Like the 0 line in Cuba, telling us it might get to freezing in Perry. That's too much having to read into something that cost a lot to produce :) T
 
dsaur said:
I've waited for a below 32 month all my life, lol. Another Maunder minimum, please!! You pull one of those off in July, and it's probably snow city...although the afternoon thunderstorms might have some trouble forming in 32 degree weather, lol, but I've seen thunder snow, so I know it's possible. Sounds to me like we need a space program for weather analytics, and get some models where the mostly impossible is rare. Like the 0 line in Cuba, telling us it might get to freezing in Perry. That's too much having to read into something that cost a lot to produce :) T
Click to expand...

Being from Ohio, and have worked in -15+ degree (that's without windchill) enviroments. A below 32 month just doesn't sound fun. At all. I am all for the snow down here, good times are had by all.
 
Much cooler today than yesterday so far. Currently drizzle/misting here at 56.4.
 
As October left, October was warmer and wetter than average.
(From NOAA)
fe8d6086fe4ddd8f29afcf7f7df029c5.jpg
f09b6b887b4462311001d8c50534b6d8.jpg


Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
MMoore4720 said:
Being from Ohio, and have worked in -15+ degree (that's without windchill) enviroments. A below 32 month just doesn't sound fun. At all. I am all for the snow down here, good times are had by all.
Click to expand...
I like brief bouts of cold weather. I would imagine that living in a place where it stays cold for months at a time would eventually wear on you and make you hate the cold.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I like brief bouts of cold weather. I would imagine that living in a place where it stays cold for months at a time would eventually wear on you and make you hate the cold.
Click to expand...

Same with snow I think. Its why while I think about moving north I always come back to "well up north snow isnt that fun" lol. You go to work/school unless its some huge historic blizzard.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top