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Pattern November Knock-Out

Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, I read your twitter stuff about the +iod. Will that hurt us bad despite a -QBO and possibly an east based niña? I saw 1951, 2005 and 2016 as only analogs for this configuration. Is there any reason to be optimistic this winter? Just curious
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Redistribution of mass related to alterations in convective heating in response to a +IOD in a NINA background favors even more retraction of the North Pacific jet, and thus poleward displacement of the Aleutian ridge... This forcing directly interferes with the EQBO's tendency to suppress the anomalous Aleutian high but is currently superimposed onto the background state & inter annual persistence. Normally, this would favor a more robust SE US ridge, however, there's a peculiar, but insignificant-very insignificant anomalous + height anomaly center in/around Greenland which appears to mask this outcome in the differential composite between +IOD/cool neutral-NINA events and strong -IOD/NINAs.
hiK5nba5oG.png

Here's the NDJFM SSTa differential for the two sets of years using ERSSTv4. Note the +IOD in the IO and stronger -PDO signature in the +IOD/-ENSO years...
HyXuT66k4S.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Redistribution of mass related to alterations in convective heating in response to a +IOD in a NINA background favors even more retraction of the North Pacific jet, and thus poleward displacement of the Aleutian ridge... This forcing directly interferes with the EQBO's tendency to suppress the anomalous Aleutian high but is currently superimposed onto the background state & inter annual persistence. Normally, this would favor a more robust SE US ridge, however, there's a peculiar, but insignificant-very insignificant anomalous + height anomaly center in/around Greenland which appears to mask this outcome in the differential composite between +IOD/cool neutral-NINA events and strong -IOD/NINAs.
View attachment 1477

Here's the NDJFM SSTa differential for the two sets of years using ERSSTv4. Note the +IOD in the IO and stronger -PDO signature in the +IOD/-ENSO years...
View attachment 1478
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Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Webber, do you think the Pacific jet will be more retracted this yr compared to last yr? I think that's important because it was so prevalent last winter.
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The Pacific jet was not extensive at all last winter, it was very retracted as you would anticipate for a NINA as evidenced by the anomalous blocking high superimposed onto the climatological Aleutian Low center. A similar pattern would favor a stout SE US ridge and strong PV (+AO/NAO)
ZFp90bpp1H.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Pacific jet was not extensive at all last winter, it was very retracted as you would anticipate for a NINA as evidenced by the anomalous blocking high superimposed onto the climatological Aleutian Low center. A similar pattern would favor a stout SE US ridge and strong PV (+AO/NAO)
View attachment 1479
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Of course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?
 
Mr. Golf said:
Of course I'm no expert like yourself, but I thought retracted meant to hold back or pull back. What was that jet that kept plowing into the Pacific nw or n California all of last winter then?
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Even when it's retracted the Pacific jet can easily reach the west coast of the US as a very formidable entity but against climatology it was weaker than usual and especially compared to the 2015-16 super NINO winter
 
GaWx said:
The difference between the 12Z GEFS and the colder 12Z EPS days 9-11 is largely a NW Canadian/Arctic high that the Euro/EPS bring down into the Midwest/Plains (with sub -20C 850s getting to far southern Canada) but which the GFS/GEFS keeps in Canada. Which is right? Any guesses? In between? This is unusual because more often than not the GEFS is colder.
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To some extent (not as strong/cold a high as the Tue runs and not that much down into the SE like those runs), the Euro is back to this in today's 12Z run after not having it in the 0Z run. For much of the E US, especially MW/NE, the 12Z Euro is like on the Tue runs colder than the GFS around that time.
 
Drought monitor update, getting worse in both Carolinas Piedmont areas! :(
 
fortunately I'm going up north at least twice this winter, at least record highs up there are in the 60s mostly :p
 
I hope this winter will bring me some goods where im at, because if not ill have to chase.
 
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