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Pattern November Knock-Out

WeatherWatch said:
AO trending - , PNA trending +, NAO trending -, this would suggest a stormy east coast with some snow after cold front passages across the Appalachian mtns and some snow across the northeastern US.

Even though the 8-14 outlook is suggesting drier than normal conditions across the majority of the east. I'd expect that to change future outlooks from NOAA.
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NAO looks like it wants to block; PNA on the other hand suggests it wants the NAO to block warm air ... just MHO ...

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tennessee storm said:
yeah appears the models are starting to back off on the cold air first advertise... still nothing to warm but slowly warmer each run it seems....
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Yeah your right, 6z gfs was cool but not cold but the 12z gfs was actually little colder, plus 12z Euro came in much colder.
 
accu35 said:
Yeah your right, 6z gfs was cool but not cold but the 12z gfs was actually little colder, plus 12z Euro came in much colder.
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Yeah, looks warm and toasty and models are backing off the cold! That's what TN storm said!! Can't be right
 
Maybe I should stop telling my parents a thing, as I told them that it looked like it might be cold again after a while on Thanksgiving and a couple runs afterward the models started warming up.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, looks warm and toasty and models are backing off the cold! That's what TN storm said!! Can't be right
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As Charlie said models will go back n forth. Its not as brutality cold as shown right now but overall much cooler is what im saying
 
cd2play said:
It's going to keep warming, and end up torching with severe storms.
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Well all of yall severe folks keep talking it up and it will happen lol. Overall models are much cooler than it has been, especially from last year. Euro much colder so we should take that into consideration as well. We will get some severe eventually some im not rushing that because we already had a rough hurricane season with bad weather lets take a break from the bad
 
0z GFS looks pretty cold next Sat/Sun!! Brrrrr! :)
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah i like what im seeing.... that way we can go outside work all the turkey dressing off... good weather.lol
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I like what im seeing to, turkey day for alot of us in the southeast are going to stay in the 50s low 60s for highs and good bit of 40s at night. Not bad for Thanksgiving, beats last year.
 
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Temps during the event, pretty close. Ive been watching this time frame and models has been back n forth with something. So something to keep watch
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks to me more like a frontal passage, then some overrunning into arctic cold
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Cold chasing moisture, as we know it, this will look different on every run between now and then.
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Looks like someone needs to explain the QPF maps and what a cold front is again this winter.

Not me, ain't doin it....

Now the Euro on the other hand makes you rub your chin a little.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like someone needs to explain the QPF maps and what a cold front is again this winter.

Not me, ain't doin it....

Now the Euro on the other hand makes you rub your chin a little.
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THIS^^^^


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WeatherWatch said:
Cold chasing moisture, as we know it, this will look different on every run between now and then.
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WeatherWatch said:
Cold chasing moisture, as we know it, this will look different on every run between now and then.
d61406e19e8634862f69a332c90dd093.gif


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WeatherWatch said:
Cold chasing moisture, as we know it, this will look different on every run between now and then.
d61406e19e8634862f69a332c90dd093.gif


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yep your correct... nothing to see here...
 
SD said:
I actually think we could sneak something in that weekend. Just enough blocking

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It's going to be fairly cold pre Thanksgiving weekend, for sure! Just need to check timing later.
Just to have this look , in November, only 7-8 days out, is winning after the last two winters!
 
Imagine that, monster cold shot not coming! Shocked and awed! Never seen that before! Winter cancel
 
Per the MDA forecast through 11/26, KATL will likely end up quite close to normal instead of warm for November as a whole, which is of course a victory vs how it looked about 2 week ago and also how it looked as of the end of week 1 of Nov., when they were +11! I say "victory" from the perspective of those who don't want Nov to end up warm, which appears to now be the dominant desire based on almost all comments here lately rooting for cold. Not only am I happy that November is acting like November but also I continue to feel that the colder the better for winter prospects overall due to a weak correlation of Nov to DJF for temperatures from my perspective.
 
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