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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS trending to a strong closed off Alaskan ridge around day 7. Gonna drop a cold air nuke at this rate into CONUS. Really impressive -EPO trend hereView attachment 154311View attachment 154312
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Pretty impressive to see dual blocking setting up in favorable locations already. If you want to get cold and have a shot at anomalous snow, that's one way to potentially get there.
 
Rain Cold said:
Pretty impressive to see dual blocking setting up in favorable locations already. If you want to get cold and have a shot at anomalous snow, that's one way to potentially get there.
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I’m just looking to not wear shorts on Thanksgiving. That’s my step one. If I can get that one, maybe I’ll have a touch of hope the rest of the season.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Long range Euro ensemble looks great!! Probably looks really good on weatherbell
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Never forget. (Not picking, just reminding we have had this same issue now for 3-4 years of D10+ ensemble mirages).
1300m said:
I should have stopped posting right here. If anyone has any ideas or thoughts as to why this same evolution keeps repeating -- long range ensembles show the TPV sliding under the Greenland block and as we move towards D7 always trend away from it -- I'd sincerely like to hear it because frankly I'm at a loss.

Basically every other part of the pattern was modeled quite well, including the Greenland blocking, but the TPV is somehow always modeled too far east. This has happened numerous times since 2021 and I really have no explanation for it.
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1300m said:
For years now, we've seen a tendency for the TPV to not fully slide eastward under Greenland blocking when we've had opportunities for it to. If that TPV doesn't fully come under the block and into favorable position in northern New England / southeastern Canada, which the EPS out to 2/19 still isn't showing a definitive signal of, it will likely wreck the pattern and either the Midwest and/or New England will be getting snow while we continue just like we have been. It is hard to break these kind of year-over-year tendencies.
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At least as of now, it seems like the weaker the TPV is, the more likely it will be to slide east. If it remains very strong, it appears more EPS members keep it further west. Something to consider.
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Until we can move beyond this multi-year tendency, I think it is wise to continue to look for and assess the signs and indications that it may happen again, while obviously hoping and praying it doesn't.
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Just got back from Playa Del Carmen on Friday night. Upper 90’s real feel the entire trip. I’m really trying my best to get excited about winter but after stepping off the plane in Charlotte wearing basketball shorts and a t-shirt I was just cold and angry. I hope I’m not becoming the person I once hated. Give me some snow and maybe this all goes away. IMG_0491.png
 
1300m said:
Never forget. (Not picking, just reminding we have had this same issue now for 3-4 years of D10+ ensemble mirages).
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Yeah I'm just trying to be as optimistic as I can be this winter, good chance the trends to something that isn't as good.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Yeah I'm just trying to be as optimistic as I can be this winter, good chance the trends to something that isn't as good.
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I'm not sure I have the ability to be optimistic anymore haha. If we ever break the trend I was discussing we'll know we're headed to glory. Of course we can get snow without a perfect pattern and I have a feeling that's how we'll break the drought. Maybe a good upper-jet induced heavy snow ala January 2018 (also a Nina) or either an overrunning event.
 
J.C. said:
KATL is +8.4 for the month through 18 days. Between no real cold air anytime soon, few cloudy days, and absurdly in accurate overnight lows, they have to be making a run at the record.
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My average is 60.8 degrees. Max is 78.4, min is 39.7 so far, so about 4 degrees over average at KATL. Their 8 over is bogus.

I'll take an above normal November if I get a below normal period 12/20 to 1/15.
 
I just wish that I knew a wet November like this here meant something for winter... One way or the other but I'm gonna be mad if we get all this rain now and can't get one good storm this winter

In the short term... Thursday had a high of 42 a few days ago and now we're pushing 60...
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just got back from Playa Del Carmen on Friday night. Upper 90’s real feel the entire trip. I’m really trying my best to get excited about winter but after stepping off the plane in Charlotte wearing basketball shorts and a t-shirt I was just cold and angry. I hope I’m not becoming the person I once hated. Give me some snow and maybe this all goes away. View attachment 154330
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Welcome, we accept you on the warmer side
 
Brent said:
I just wish that I knew a wet November like this here meant something for winter... One way or the other but I'm gonna be mad if we get all this rain now and can't get one good storm this winter

In the short term... Thursday had a high of 42 a few days ago and now we're pushing 60...
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It only takes 1 storm to make a winter, and you are in a much better position than we are east of the mountains. Feb 2021 comes to mind as to how things play out. Feb 1989 too, although areas east of the mountains also had a couple of nice winter systems.
 
Oh god, I just feel like this is going to be a struggle to get cold here, Except CAD, which I am somewhat lucky enough to be in, Do you guys feel like CAD cold feels different? I have a friend of mine who moved, and still lives here,,, to ATL from Chicago and he said he never felt colder when it was 35 ish with rain?
 
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