Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

[Avalanche]

10 days away? We're so back


View attachment 154337

Danville VA here I come!!!

 

[Avalanche]

Why can't leaves disintegrate as soon as they hit the ground?

We have to rake and blow them first. Urgh!!!

 

[Carolina Jones]

10 days away? We're so back


View attachment 154337

I'm on the line so looks legit.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EC AI has been pretty the last couple of runs

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The good ol JB hockey stick pattern

 

[tennessee storm]

We have to rake and blow them first. Urgh!!!

I mow mine or mulch them

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS now has a major arctic air intrusion just at D10 window. It’s getting closer. EPS slighty slower

 

[Stevo24]

GEFS now has a major arctic air intrusion just at D10 window. It’s getting closer. EPS slighty slower View attachment 154341View attachment 154342

I don’t wanna waste the cold in November but at the same time I want the cold during the holidays

 

[LukeBarrette]

Thread for NW flow event?

 

[iGRXY]

If and this is a big if all things stayed the same, we could be looking at a good ole traditional mid to upper 60's thanksgiving morning, with the passing front mid day. If you eat at lunch you're looking at rain/wind and mid 60's. If you eat in the afternoon you're looking at a windy clear evening with temps that have crashed well into the 40's and legit arctic feel.

 

[FallsLake]

I don’t wanna waste the cold in November but at the same time I want the cold during the holidays

We're now getting close to the time of year (early Dec onward) where we can score a big storm. It's about "go time" to start hoping for winter storms.

 

[Mitch West]

If and this is a big if all things stayed the same, we could be looking at a good ole traditional mid to upper 60's thanksgiving morning, with the passing front mid day. If you eat at lunch you're looking at rain/wind and mid 60's. If you eat in the afternoon you're looking at a windy clear evening with temps that have crashed well into the 40's and legit arctic feel.

My guy understand the vibe. I like it brother.

 

[jackendrickwx]

pretty sure i've been staring at model images like this for at least a week. excited to get this big boy thru here for a chilly end to the week before turning attention to TG week stuff

 

[jackendrickwx]

man friday looks like it could be BN for any time of year for a good chunk of the southeast. even the warmer models paint temps ~60F and below for the entire Carolinas, GA, TN, and most of AL/part of MS. likely gonna be low-mid 50s for most of the carolinas outside the mtns and coast. NBM mean even keeps northern MS/AL/GA as well as NC/TN around 47-50 for a high. clouds may stop widespread frost fri am, we shall see

 

[Myfrotho704_]

06z EC AI is a beauty. Strong -EPO/-WPO and a TPV near the lakes with a super suppressed height field. Very cold run. Almost was a biggin this run with that energy that dug in the SW

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s see what this GFS run does. TPV diving south into Canada, strong -EPO and an incoming trough around the Aleutian Islands. Lots of troughing underneath as well which keeps the look more interesting

 

[LukeBarrette]

Let’s see what this GFS run does. TPV diving south into Canada, strong -EPO and an incoming trough around the Aleutian Islands. Lots of troughing underneath as well which keeps the look more interesting View attachment 154352

Such a delicate balance between too much suppression and a good storm

 

[NCSNOW]

Ukmet never gets us out of the mid 40s here this Friday:

12Z GFS Op has a streak of Blue SW VA on Turkey day on a 3 hr frame:

12Z GFs also has a DP in the low single digits as we roll into December. Be able to slide our feet on the floors and shock others at the touch.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty important trend here on the GEFS which is probably why it continues to look better run to run
(which looks like a incoming good run for 12z)
Trend to a stronger Aleutian trough is favorable for the east as it favors higher heights further east into B.C/the west coast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The result. @griteater

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

The result. @griteater View attachment 154356View attachment 154357

Dang almost the entire country in blue except for Florida.

 

[FallsLake]

12 GFS has a great look for Thanksgiving. Highs in the 40s, overcast, and spotty light rain for many across the board.

Late afternoon surface temps:

A flannel shirt kind of day...

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

Beautiful rain here in the ATL, over 1.2 inches so far...

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs run to run changes from the last 10 runs. It seems to only be solidifying the signal.

 

[EmersonGA]

3.28” so far here to end whatever drought the last one didn’t. Just shot a charity skeet tournament. That type of rain will find any hole the rain gear.

 

[Mitch West]

The result. @griteater View attachment 154356View attachment 154357

We are going to be fighting that ridge nudge all Winter. Hoping we can somehow manage to properly drop a trough this Winter.

 

[FallsLake]

We are going to be fighting that ridge nudge all Winter. Hoping we can somehow manage to properly drop a trough this Winter.

The 12z Canadian is slower getting the cold into the SE (for Thanksgiving) but looks more impressive with the push of arctic air towards the southeast on day 10 (Black Friday).

 

[weatherfide]

3.28” so far here to end whatever drought the last one didn’t. Just shot a charity skeet tournament. That type of rain will find any hole the rain gear.

I'm sitting at 2.42" and still raining steadily. Way over performed.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This GEFS run is weenie tastic. Around day 10 and onwards it starts to extend the pacific jet to a favorable location

 

[WXinCanton]

1.15 here, still coming down

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

I'm sitting at 2.42" and still raining steadily. Way over performed.

Models vastly busted on this event here. 2.3 now..

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Bringing up the rear @ 0.98” - but I’ll gladly take it…

 

[SD]

This GEFS run is weenie tastic. Around day 10 and onwards it starts to extend the pacific jet to a favorable location View attachment 154362

Yep get the nose of the pac jet between the aleutians and Hawaii and we will be good

 

[1300m]

Roll some TPV east and no Greenland block.

 

[SD]

This is acceptable

 

[Brent]

First fantasy run of the year here

 

[griteater]

The result. @griteater View attachment 154356View attachment 154357

This GEFS run is weenie tastic. Around day 10 and onwards it starts to extend the pacific jet to a favorable location View attachment 154362

Yeah I like this follow on low / trough coming off E Asia days 8-13 after an expansive Siberian high pressure drops a cold surge into China. This reinforces the -WPO / -EPO North Pac ridging and tries to push it east. All the modeling has it to some degree. The AI Euro was early on it

 

[SASQUATCH]

This seems good, is this good?

 

[J.C.]

Physical gauge has 1.15" bringing the month to 2.65". We will still end the month far below the average of 4.21", but at least its raining again.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Yep get the nose of the pac jet between the aleutians and Hawaii and we will be good

What’s the potential downstream impact of that? Asking for a friend