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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

If we keep a similar look through a good part of winter it'll be a long season for those living run to run in the mid to long range. Models will struggle as you go out from hr 0 with how to handle the energy coming down the ridge and whether it digs into the SW or moves across the US. Not surprising at all to see models have highs in the 70s across the region one run then 30s the next.
 
SD said:
Looks like locally we are losing Thanksgiving as a warm day on the last few sets of runs. Gfs keeps most of NC either side of 40 through the day.
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To add to this the coldest Thanksgiving day I have in my records on my pws is a high of 46.8 I think we could beat that if the front gets through and Thanksgiving day stays cloudy but a week away meh
 
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guidance trending colder for friday AM across NC. NBM mean gets everyone north of 85 right to 32F, likely see some drainage spots get down to 30 or so. rdu itself, eh, always seems to find a way to be 34-36. will be close on getting that freeze record
 
SD said:
Looks like locally we are losing Thanksgiving as a warm day on the last few sets of runs. Gfs keeps most of NC either side of 40 through the day.
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And Dry. I'll punt the cold for the DRY if I have to.
24 guest, kids included. Wife already on suicide watch with kids able to be outside running around.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 154421View attachment 154422
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After the last couple of years of ensembles showing nice patterns against the Ops looking awful or mid, I'm hesitant to rely on them too heavily.

The base winter pattern has wanted to put a trough in the west (in reality) regardless of what the Ops and Ens show. The Ops will look good at range, then the Ensembles look good, then the Ops turn to crap as time closes in, and the Ensembles slowly cave.

We'll see if a different pattern emerges this winter or not. Right now, the Ens look good, and the Ops, which looked better before, now generally look meh.
 
Rain Cold said:
After the last couple of years of ensembles showing nice patterns against the Ops looking awful or mid, I'm hesitant to rely on them too heavily.

The base winter pattern has wanted to put a trough in the west (in reality) regardless of what the Ops and Ens show. The Ops will look good at range, then the Ensembles look good, then the Ops turn to crap as time closes in, and the Ensembles slowly cave.

We'll see if a different pattern emerges this winter or not. Right now, the Ens look good, and the Ops, which looked better before, now generally look meh.
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My personal rule of going all in is when it gets to D5-6. Right now, it’s at D9 so we’ll see.
 
Rain Cold said:
After the last couple of years of ensembles showing nice patterns against the Ops looking awful or mid, I'm hesitant to rely on them too heavily.

The base winter pattern has wanted to put a trough in the west (in reality) regardless of what the Ops and Ens show. The Ops will look good at range, then the Ensembles look good, then the Ops turn to crap as time closes in, and the Ensembles slowly cave.

We'll see if a different pattern emerges this winter or not. Right now, the Ens look good, and the Ops, which looked better before, now generally look meh.
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The AI Euro would like to have a word with you in the conference room :)
Nov 20 AI 500.gifNov 20 AI Sfc.gif
 
But in all seriousness, I like riding with the ensemble mean ideas out at range. After the rex block / bomb cyclone mess gets cleaned out of the NE Pac, there appears to be a fairly consistent theme of a Pacific jet extension (originating from E Asia cold surge) leading to a Mod El Nino type look of Aleutian Low / trough anomaly N / NW of Hawaii with ridging pressed N into AK and east into the west coast, with Eastern or NE trough
Nov 20 Euro Ens.png
 
BullCityWx said:
Front came through Atlanta late morning-ish and it has turned sharply more windy. I’m going to the tech game tomorrow night and it looks like falling to the mid, maybe lower 40s.
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Mighty nice that football weather finally showed up before the end of the regular season.
 
Snowfan said:
My personal rule of going all in is when it gets to D5-6. Right now, it’s at D9 so we’ll see.
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Mine is < 96 hrs with positive trends on ops and < 144 hrs with positive trends on EPS. GEFS is total garbage and should frankly never be used for forecasting storm-specific details IMO. I’m as guilty as anyone of looking for any shred of hope including the GEFS on this forum, but I’d never stick my neck out using it professionally.

Let’s just say that other than the December ‘22 cold snap, I’ve not uttered the first word about winter potential professionally for low elevation NC the last couple winters.
 
griteater said:
But in all seriousness, I like riding with the ensemble mean ideas out at range. After the rex block / bomb cyclone mess gets cleaned out of the NE Pac, there appears to be a fairly consistent theme of a Pacific jet extension (originating from E Asia cold surge) leading to a Mod El Nino type look of Aleutian Low / trough anomaly N / NW of Hawaii with ridging pressed N into AK and east into the west coast, with Eastern or NE trough
View attachment 154433
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I hear ya on the AI Euro....I'm waiting to see how it does since we really don't have any history to go off of. But I like what it's showing.

The ensembles have a tendency to put blues over the SE while showing a general big broad trough west to east. They seem to miss the recent tendency of troughing to roll back westward more vigorously underneath the AK ridge, which is understandable, since they're smoothing all of those details out way out in time.

But at least we can say that right now, they show a good signal for chillier weather around here. 🤷‍♂️
 
Going to be a little windy tonight.

Strong wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph likely this evening...

As a strong cold front sweeps through the region this evening, a
period of intense wind gusts as high as 25 to 40 mph is expected
across central North Carolina. These strong gusts will cross the
area west to east mainly between 8 PM and 1 AM. We`ve already
seen these gusts knock down trees to our northwest, and a few
downed trees are possible across our area through the evening.
This may produce isolated power outages.

Consider securing or bringing loose outdoor objects indoors, and
use extreme caution if you need to be out and about this evening.
Winds are expected to decrease later tonight.
 
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