That’s a legitimately good look advertised by the euro. Northern stream energy supplying cold air and a southern wave in place with overrunning precipitation. Far out but a good example of what can get the job done 
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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥
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tennessee storm
Member
Except it’s november ….
1.17 for the event, largest rainfall in nearly 2 months
ForsythSnow
Moderator
1.82" of cold rain total, a good soaking.
1.39" inches of a long steady rain. Much needed
SimeonNC
Member
GFS wants to bury WV lol
Me and the family are going to Gatlinburg the 22nd-26th this month. Really hoping we can at minimum get some snow on top of those peaks for a nice backdrop. Hopefully we can trend to a more aggressive NW flow snow event like the CMC is showing & get something outside the higher peaks.
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Euro is bullish on the rain event for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning! It did well at this range on the last one. The cold after the front is muted, which is also good, since it's too early for anything fun at this point.
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Well, it's almost December...and it's really just an example of what to look for. This has about a .005% chance of verifying! I don't know why the Euro is running out to 360 hours...I think we should stop all of them at 144 hours, like the Ukie.
Downeastnc
Member
One of the biggest snowstorm in the last 25 yrs hit Dec 3 here...late Nov certainly isnt when we look for snow but it could happen. We need something like that look to pan out before everything gets unfavorable.
JHS
Member
2000? If so that one was supposed to hit a much bigger area.
Downeastnc
Member
weather bubba
Member
The 2002 ice storm that brought down more trees than Fran in my neighborhood south of Raleigh was a early December storm. Major winter weather events in the early part of December are rare but not unheard of. If this weather pattern were to verify, it might produce some interesting weather for Central and Eastern North Carolina.
SnowNiner
Member
WV/Snowshoe will be the winners again on the East Coast this year I bet. We'll see that map or some variation with the lollipop over Snowshoe all winter.
With everything warming and the rut we're in, at least WV still seems pretty normal. Just 6 hours away.
JHS
Member
You can add Dec 1989 and 2005 to the list of major winters events for that month. 2005's storm was awful right along the escarpment from around Clarksville GA up into Henderson and Polk Counties of NC. The 1989 storm was worse along I-95 if I remember right.
lexxnchloe
Member
Boone/blowing rock is the move late next week. See y’all there. Full send snow weenie this winter 
It’s snowed in the midlands of SC in October before…
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Enjoy the cold shots while they’re here. The subseasonal deck looks stacked against the eastern and southeastern us for most of December. Expecting a rather mild one this year, unlike most La Ninas.
I think things could get interesting right at the tail end of December or early January perhaps
I think things could get interesting right at the tail end of December or early January perhaps
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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well yeah
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Probably a sneak preview of what we may see at times later this winter. Lake effect machine will probably be quite active with occasionally very intense cold shots going over much warmer than normal lakes
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
Saw that a few of the lakes are record warmth for this time of year. Not sure where I saw it but maybe you could confirm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’d really love to do a lake effect snow chase this year. The first truly big cold shot that goes over the Great Lakes is going to produce a lot of white gold
Missed it but Looks like the 18z AI euro nukes the NC mountains with a long duration NW flow event
SimeonNC
Member
Just seeing snow fall before December would be awesome.
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weather bubba
Member
It would be nice to see a few November flakes. My birthday is next Friday and while KRDU has recorded snow on my birthday before, there has never been an accumulation reported. An accumulating snow on my birthday would be an awesome gift. I'll go buy a lottery ticket if that ever happens.
JHS
Member
The 0z GFS says go to West VA to see snow. Not a flake in NC with this one as of now.
NCSNOW
Member
Jack Frost showed up this morning in mby.
Downeastnc
Member
Still no frost here this season, like not even patchy frost temp last night was 37.4, probably gonna have our first frost and freeze on the same day this year.
And the GFS is back (shocker)
weather bubba
Member
Looking at the 2m shaded temperature maps on the GFS this morning, it looks like the earliest that KRDU might see a freeze would be November 28th which happens to be the date of the latest freeze on record. Even then, urban areas might not reach the magic number.
Areas north of Raleigh and outlying rural areas will see temperatures should drop to 32 degrees or a little lower according to the model.
Areas north of Raleigh and outlying rural areas will see temperatures should drop to 32 degrees or a little lower according to the model.
GFS looks decent again. Been a couple years since experiencing mid/low 20s and snow 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
Canadian please take my money
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Might be an interesting way to finish out the month
Yeah the GEFS is following suit. More extended pacific jet with a +PNA/-WPO and -EPO and cross polar flow with a ridge bridge through the west coast/AK and Siberia. Very nice pattern here. Highly skeptical of this imo and think we are more likely to have a -EPO/-PNA and -NAO more like the Canadian, but something to consider. I’d think something like this happens late dec with favorable MJO orbit given convection more then likely to pass at and through the dateline and a very weak La Niña. Also looks like AAM will become positive into December which favors more momentum into the pacific jet later on and more troughing in the subtropics. 
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EPS trending to a strong closed off Alaskan ridge around day 7. Gonna drop a cold air nuke at this rate into CONUS. Really impressive -EPO trend here
