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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

How can the ICON be so far off vs GFS? I like the ICON model, personally, as it seems to perform well in mby.
 
$alt said:
How can the ICON be so far off vs GFS? I like the ICON model, personally, as it seems to perform well in mby.
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00Z ICON/Euro were pretty much in agreement out to 144. And I'm actually not a big fan of the ICON, personally haha, so I'm not trying to defend it.
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1300m said:
00Z ICON/Euro were pretty much in agreement out to 144. And I'm actually not a big fan of the ICON, personally haha, so I'm not trying to defend it.
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That looks familiar. It would be nice to know what causes this pattern to dominate every cold season, regardless of ENSO, QBO, solar, or whatever else.

The new toy that seems to predict everythinis now is the MJO, and one could point to it living in unfavorable phases. But obviously, that has not always been the case throughout history. Something is clearly influencing that behavior.

The 6z GFS looks a lot better, and the Euro eventually does cool down in the east. But we're talking toward the end of the run again.
 
Rain Cold said:
That looks familiar. It would be nice to know what causes this pattern to dominate every cold season, regardless of ENSO, QBO, solar, or whatever else.

The new toy that seems to predict everythinis now is the MJO, and one could point to it living in unfavorable phases. But obviously, that has not always been the case throughout history. Something is clearly influencing that behavior.

The 6z GFS looks a lot better, and the Euro eventually does cool down in the east. But we're talking toward the end of the run again.
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superjames1992 said:
2009-10 was a great winter, so I guess maybe it bodes well. 😆
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I like your positivity lol. And you're not wrong, 2009-10 was amazing from a cold and pattern perspective. That is pretty wild to think that the 6th coldest winter all-time at RDU started out with the latest fall freeze on record. I'll confess I did not know (or had forgotten) that until now so thanks for bringing this up haha!
 
EmersonGA said:
I'm at 1.82" and still more coming down. How did you do?
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I got to spend a whole 18 hours at home from Spain after driving to Durham, so I’m not able to check my physical gauge, but the tempest shows 1.1”. If I had to guess, 1.2-1.3”.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Boy not even Beech with a flake of snow. You know it's been a warm fall when you see this in mid November.
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You are right about that. Without freezing temperatures at night though it is hard to keep snow on the slopes no matter if it is man made or natural.
 
griteater said:
Funny thing is that the old Euro Control run is now the Op from what I've read. Op goes out to hr144 now with 06z/18z runs and out to 15 day with 00z/12z runs. We have the AI run out to 15 days now too of course for all 4 runs
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I just noticed it this morning and it's pretty cool. Tidbits has the rain/snow maps finally too. It's sure is a long way from the old Plymouth weather days and trying to interpret things from course maps at only a few levels.

Had 1.05 of much needed rain. With these cool temps and long range euro..I'm dying for something wintery to track. Feels like it's been a decade.
 
That 18z GFS run is garbage. Only the initial cold front comes through and we go back to ridging. This flies in the face of other models and past GFS operational runs. It probably corrects back on the 0z.
 
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.07 here on the coast, (bit more depending where you reside), Maybe a inch..
Of badly needed rain in SENC..
temp 63F
 
I'm kinda surprised the models aren't colder, especially with the epo and ao going negative unless the models just haven't picked up on it good enough yet
 
GolfishardIknowit70 said:
I'm kinda surprised the models aren't colder, especially with the epo and ao going negative unless the models just haven't picked up on it good enough yet
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Yeah I'm assuming it's a bit of the usual mid range models too warm stuff we've seen before at least out here. I dunno I mean it is early in the season still but I mean we hit 33 in October and TWC only has 31 next week. That's honestly pathetic for this late in November and not worth posting on Facebook as some big deal about

I mean I know the met posted about crazy weather Wednesday I don't really expect us to be cold enough here but still we should be at least hitting mid 20s once it clears out
 
We have avoided the 2016 scenario so far with enough rain to keep the wildfires away. Hopefully the rest of fall and into winter does not turn dry because there is still plenty of opportunity in the area with all of the trees and limbs laying around from Helene.
 
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