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Pattern November 2024 💤 🔥

With this amount of high latitude blocking showing up on ensembles there is going to be some wild solutions from models.
 
SD said:
That type of block across Canada would likely produce some extreme/quirky weather across the conus, throw in a potential tropical system and you have a mess.
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thinking the same thing at the same time haha
 
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Reactions: SD
GolfishardIknowit70 said:
I think it's just the mjo going into colder phases for November if I was to guess
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Looks very phases 1-2 progression but a much stronger version than expected. Good thing is if we are getting some decent pattern reflections vs mjo expected results the pattern around Christmas into early January may be one to start zeroing in on
 
SD said:
Looks very phases 1-2 progression but a much stronger version than expected. Good thing is if we are getting some decent pattern reflections vs mjo expected results the pattern around Christmas into early January may be one to start zeroing in on
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Isn't 4-6 phases cold this time year though?
 
GolfishardIknowit70 said:
Isn't 4-6 phases cold this time year though?
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1-6 are normal to below with 2 & 5 having the stringest BN looks. The 1-2 transition is the big east Canada ridge retrigrading into a central Canada ridge with a +nao similar to the gfs. Given that this is a slower mjo pass I'm not certain we see the big pna really cold east typical of p5 since we will be later in the month when we get there and there is such a big contrast between fall p5 and winter p5.
 
SD said:
1-6 are normal to below with 2 & 5 having the stringest BN looks. The 1-2 transition is the big east Canada ridge retrigrading into a central Canada ridge with a +nao similar to the gfs. Given that this is a slower mjo pass I'm not certain we see the big pna really cold east typical of p5 since we will be later in the month when we get there and there is such a big contrast between fall p5 and winter p5.
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Anyone know where I can find the data/charts for this information
 
Yup
 

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LukeBarrette said:
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Crazy evolution.
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I know we're talking about la la land GFS, but this kind of checks with the interaction we saw with the upper low and Helene. Tropical system acts as a mechanism to bring the cold air southward and eastward. Those two features need to be a perfect distance apart for them to interact but for the tropical system to not get sheared or pulled westward into the SE.

EDIT: Not making a direct comparison between the two, but just pointing out the interaction between an upper low and tropical system, especially this late in the season, can cause some really anomalous weather in the lower 48.
 
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