Pattern November 2022

[Shaggy]

WRAL mentioned the 99-00 winter was a third year niña.

dec 3rd 2000!!!!!!!

 

[Brent]

I actually have a mean on the GEFS snow map ? I was joking last night about it turning into a winter storm. I'm still expecting a cold rain but who knows

 

[BHS1975]

I actually have a mean on the GEFS snow map I was joking last night about it turning into a winter storm. I'm still expecting a cold rain but who knows View attachment 124037

Those upper lows are tricky.


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[smast16]

View attachment 124033
Nothing to see here, just the Euro dropping 2 feet of snow in the Southern Panhandle of TX.

Congrats Amarillo.... <--- that's a new one.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

This is good.

 

[SD]

This is good. View attachment 124038

Hottest hot ? ? ? ?‍? ? ? ? ? ? great agreement

 

[Stevo24]

This is good. View attachment 124038

This is good. View attachment 124038

Good for what

 

[SD]

Good for what

Cold

 

[Rain Cold]

Good for what

Strong blocking signal over Greenland and near AK and the west coast with a split flow. Hard not to like that, unless you're Loganelliot

 

[Stevo24]

Strong blocking signal over Greenland and near AK and the west coast with a split flow. Hard not to like that, unless you're Loganelliot

See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

 

[Rain Cold]

See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

I don't remember him posting warm maps, but he may have. I'm in the car and am not going back through the thread. But there are a lot of different models that potentially show a lot of different things, and the European ensemble image he posted was just one of them. Myfro and Logan are the ones who usually like posting the warm maps. Maybe one of them did it.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

Yes I did because there were several runs in a row where it showed ridging in the SE. That was a nice run by the EPS but it’s not a trend yet. Hopefully runs like that can continue. I still think December 20thish is when the east will turn cooler to cold


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[Tarheel1]

Strong blocking signal over Greenland and near AK and the west coast with a split flow. Hard not to like that, unless you're Loganelliot

Don’t forget Lil Stevo
Currently 36

 

[Metwannabe]

See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

Consider the source

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.

 

[Itryatgolf]

Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.

We want the pacific on our side for sure. It has to be the biggest Greenland block to trump a bad or unfavorable pacific. Mjo is important more than people realize, especially in a weak to moderate niña. I like the 10th-20th time frame for a change to colder

 

[Itryatgolf]

Likely there will be a period where warm dominated while the SER gains strength. I think it’s likely( as models usually tend to do) the models are bringing cold in a bit too early and the early part of December ends up warmer than average. But I do believe that DEC 10-20 range is where we could see a fairly dramatic pattern flip that will be able to produce a winter event somewhere in the SE or mid Atlantic region. We need the -NAO though to make the SER tap out for a while. So for models we want to focus on trends that happen over Greenland to see where this pattern is headed and how quickly.

 

[Itryatgolf]

View attachment 124040

This isn't a bad signal this far out, but if the mjo can make it to phase 7 and 8 or at least cod, the cold shot should be legit imo.

 

[SD]

That pattern above on the eps can easily verify warm initially until you establish the -nao trough. Once you do though it would be game on

 

[Stevo24]

That pattern above on the eps can easily verify warm initially until you establish the -nao trough. Once you do though it would be game on

Even if the cold does come, will we have the precip to go with it? Seems like we haven’t had much until recently.