Patterns dominated by +TNH/-EPO in Nina years esp typically do see SER response tbh. It’s just a part of the game. Gonna get lucky time to time and get a +PNA with it, but more times then not, you get this awkward -EPO. Sort of like what we had before this week.
Warmer=better.
Well what’s the chances of that happening?
Chief Meteorologist Logan reporting for duty
You are right. There is no winning pattern. The best you can hope for is a strong +PNA combined with a -NAO with the coldest air on our side of the pole with an active southern jet. Even then I bet more often than not it doesn't produce snow. Suppression is an issue if you don't have temp problems around here. You could find any combo of teleconnections you want and find a snowstorm has occured during it. I've learned it's just luck around here to get things to line up. But the pattern I listed would lock in cold and increase the chances of getting lucky.
This has to be one of the most depressing paragraphs iv ever read.
I wasn't being serious. Just wanted to see how it felt to throw in the towel too. Nobody knows how the winter is going to turn out. All of the official sources just cite Nina and move on. Just because we know a lot of 3 letter alphabet soup doesn't mean we know what's going to happen. It's a rare 3rd year Nina. The SPV isn't strong. Already we see blocking showing up. Already, we're having a different Fall than usual. Already we're seeing very cold air building up and pushing south. I think we will see plenty of periods with potential snow and ice this winter. We'll end the winter with below normal temps and above normal snowfall, generally, for the SE. That's my real forecast.
You forgot Siberian snow cover and some mountain torque.
January’88 was the last winning pattern for NC/SC! ?
Looks like at the end of this, a big ridge is going up through Alaska, and about to pinch off the brunt of cold in Canada and sent it to the states, to my untrained eye!? So looking good for mid- DecemberThe silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
But a closer look, just has lobe after lobe of cold and troughs dumping into the Pacific NW and that’s no bueno! I’m not even that cold on this look! ??The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
You definitely want the pacific on your side for cold weather. If the pacific is bad, it can cause a host of issues where we are chasing unicorns all winter, which wouldn't be good.The silver lining with -PNA is that it builds the reservoir of cold air in Canada where cold high pressure is sourced. An ideal progression would be a period of -PNA followed by a flip to -EPO/+PNA (throw in polar blocking for bonus). Flooding Alaska with low pressure for an extended period is what we don't want to see (+EPO) as there is downstream warming in Canada via chinook winds off the Canadian Rockies
