Pattern November 2022

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

See that’s where I get confused on here. He posted earlier two maps showing warm around that time frame. And this shows cold.

That map I think you're referring to is a run to run change. Not actual anominalies.

 

[Chazwin]

This isn't a bad signal this far out, but if the mjo can make it to phase 7 and 8 or at least cod, the cold shot should be legit imo.

I think the MJO progression and what role in plays in the overall pattern will be very interesting to watch this year. It has obviously been the main driver these last two years of Niñas, but as I’ve said before, this Niña appears to be acting more like a neutral ENSO.

 

[NCSNOW]

The latest CFS run does just what SD says needs to happen with Atlantic blocking. It evolves through December and really has its legs under it mid Dec through Christmas. Sends 540 line down into GOM lol.
Its the theme its singing that is about all you can look for off the CFS. Then just see if it keeps it up or starts changing its tune as it runs each day. So far its been playing the same song we like to hear the past few days.

 

[Rain Cold]

The latest CFS run does just what SD says needs to happen with Atlantic blocking. It evolves through December and really has its legs under it mid Dec through Christmas. Sends 540 line down into GOM lol.
Its the theme its singing that is about all you can look for off the CFS. Then just see if it keeps it up or starts changing its tune as it runs each day. So far its been playing the same song we like to hear the past few days.

If the SPV remains weaker this year, blocking should be easier to come by and be more frequent. Will it set up in the right place? Hopefully it will a few times.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yes. Much better look for cooler weather on the ensembles.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That look on last nights EPS looks great. Strong -NAO/-EPO and a relaxed -PNA which allows the TPV to propagate east

 

[smast16]

Well this is a typical albeit crappy trend.

What was 2-3 inches, is now 0.5"

 

[SD]

Well this is a typical albeit crappy trend.

What was 2-3 inches, is now 0.5"

View attachment 124057

Merica models are going to take a huge L here. Almost everything else has been meh at best

 

[smast16]

Merica models are going to take a huge L here. Almost everything else has been meh at best

You can see the massive "oopsies" the GFS is pulling holding the ULL back.

 

[Stormdoc]

Day 10 Euro, with all the usual caveats. I do like how it is moving towards the ensembles. If we can get the Greenland block to strengthen and the -EPO to keep evolving, we may be able to drive that big cold air mass further south just after this time frame

 

[Stevo24]

This is so meh.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

ah yes that’s more like it

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

00z GFS was a Stanley steamer. This a good look? December 8 redux on hold

 

[Tarheel1]

00z GFS was a Stanley steamer. This a good look? December 8 redux on hold View attachment 124082

I thought 0z was a ??run? I mean, I had to move 1000 miles away to get a foot sleet storm, but I’ll take it! ??

 

[tennessee storm]

Strong blocking signal over Greenland and near AK and the west coast with a split flow. Hard not to like that, unless you're Loganelliot

Doubt seriously models long range hold that look… besides early still, take that look January for sure

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

As expected models are a bit too quick with the pattern change. Looking more likely that we’re still warm with the SER dominating early December. Still like the 10-20 time period for the change.

 

[LukeBarrette]

As expected models are a bit too quick with the pattern change. Looking more likely that we’re still warm with the SER dominating early December. Still like the 10-20 time period for the change.

The classic “delayed but not denied”

 

[tennessee storm]

As expected models are a bit too quick with the pattern change. Looking more likely that we’re still warm with the SER dominating early December. Still like the 10-20 time period for the change.

No suprise there

 

[Chazwin]

As expected models are a bit too quick with the pattern change. Looking more likely that we’re still warm with the SER dominating early December. Still like the 10-20 time period for the change.

That certainly lines up with what the MJO progression is showing

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The classic “delayed but not denied”

Again this has always been my thinking. To think the pattern change isn’t coming would be most likely wrong as there is heavy support for a dominant -NAO come mid December. This also will align with mjo propagation so it’s not so much delayed but not denied but more of this is how things were always suppose to go