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Pattern November 2022

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Again this has always been my thinking. To think the pattern change isn’t coming would be most likely wrong as there is heavy support for a dominant -NAO come mid December. This also will align with mjo propagation so it’s not so much delayed but not denied but more of this is how things were always suppose to go
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I’m just making the joke from last winter when the golden pattern presented itself. Which then turned into SE Ridge death
 
LukeBarrette said:
I’m just making the joke from last winter when the golden pattern presented itself. Which then turned into SE Ridge death
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What are you talking about with last winter? Modeling started showing a few days before Christmas that a favorable pattern for winter weather was coming and it worked out. I for one saw 3 consecutive weekends with an inch or more of snow
 
Chazwin said:
What are you talking about with last winter? Modeling started showing a few days before Christmas that a favorable pattern for winter weather was coming and it worked out. I for one saw 3 consecutive weekends with an inch or more of snow
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There was a second one in February
 
Ollie Williams said:
The Weeklies are predicting a -PNA with no end in sight.
View attachment 124094
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-PNA’s are always very stubborn and destroys winters around here. I think it will go positive eventually. Just not sure if it will be by Christmas time. I’ve been saying this for a while but people don’t want to believe it. Need the pacific on our side to have a chance for some wintry weather.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
-PNA’s are always very stubborn and destroys winters around here. I think it will go positive eventually. Just not sure if it will be by Christmas time. I’ve been saying this for a while but people don’t want to believe it. Need the pacific on our side to have a chance for some wintry weather.
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I made this plot earlier to determine the most important index for snow in the SE. I used Asheville (KAVL) due to the high sample size. This shows that the +PNA is by far the most important index in determining snowfall.
66AA3A64-E93E-4588-A173-519E0676915D.jpeg
 
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
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I couldn’t get it to load, but it looks to go through phase 7 and then into 8 before going into the COD. It’s a bit amped early on in phase 7 which aligns with the mild period we’re going into.
 
Chazwin said:
I couldn’t get it to load, but it looks to go through phase 7 and then into 8 before going into the COD. It’s a bit amped early on in phase 7 which aligns with the mild period we’re going into.
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What is COD?
 
Rain Cold said:
Going to guess the MJO is not going to move into 8-1 at any point in the foreseeable future. I'm not going to look because it almost certainly the case, as it is every year just as soon as we move into winter.

Whatever causes this isn't ENSO, QBO, or SAI-related. But it's regular as clockwork.
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Wasted that cold weather in November.
 
Stevo24 said:
What is COD?
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It’s short for circle of death… it’s what it’s called when the MJO is at a very low amp. Typically you want the MJO to go into COD when it’s in phases 8,1, or 2 during December and January. Honestly the progression of the MJO doesn’t look bad at all. Also on other teleconnections it looks like the NAO goes fairly negative starting around 12/5-12/8 and it’s that time the PNA goes slightly negative to neutral after being strongly negative for the next 7-10 days
 
Agreed Chaz. We're not in a bad spot this far out folks. Time will tell though in a couple weeks how things will shape up as we forecast into the latter half of December.
 
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