Itryatgolf
Member
Webber is making it sound like the colder pattern starts in December this year instead of January like last winter. We shall see
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Pattern November 2022
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
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Webber did an excellent job last year with the timing of the pattern change that set up January
Don’t see day 7 outlooks very often during this time of the year.
GFS bringing some drought busting rain with the system next weekend. This would put a big dent in the drought around here.
Brent
Member
Hopefully this one holds up because this weekend was barely anything here
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A few things I'm seeing going into the back half of November.
I'm ever-so-slightly favoring a return of the +PNA near month's end, but I'm not confident in it. I do believe though it'll be much less negative than it has been of late though as the Pacific Jet stream extends later in the month in response to returning Maritime Continent - West Pac convection and a possible E Asia Mountain Torque event. The presence of troughing near the Aleutians should squash the Gulf of Alaska ridge at least somewhat I honestly think between the +PNA & -NAO, we're more likely to see the -NAO show up first & perhaps more strongly at that.
Late November this year reminds me a lot of the latter part of last December actually. Mild overall for most of the forum, with maybe a few CAD events thrown in for the Carolinas. Luckily, we're seeing this pattern show up in late November when our snow climo is meh-garbage, and not in late December or late January, so we're really not wasting any winter. Even so, a -NAO/negative - neutral PNA might actually be a good way to build some legitimate snow cover up over southern Canada, the central US, Great Lakes, & perhaps New England as we go into December.
I'm ever-so-slightly favoring a return of the +PNA near month's end, but I'm not confident in it. I do believe though it'll be much less negative than it has been of late though as the Pacific Jet stream extends later in the month in response to returning Maritime Continent - West Pac convection and a possible E Asia Mountain Torque event. The presence of troughing near the Aleutians should squash the Gulf of Alaska ridge at least somewhat I honestly think between the +PNA & -NAO, we're more likely to see the -NAO show up first & perhaps more strongly at that.
Late November this year reminds me a lot of the latter part of last December actually. Mild overall for most of the forum, with maybe a few CAD events thrown in for the Carolinas. Luckily, we're seeing this pattern show up in late November when our snow climo is meh-garbage, and not in late December or late January, so we're really not wasting any winter. Even so, a -NAO/negative - neutral PNA might actually be a good way to build some legitimate snow cover up over southern Canada, the central US, Great Lakes, & perhaps New England as we go into December.
Detective WX
Member
Maybe a warm Nov. to cold Dec for a change? Sept and this month have been cool. We're fed up with frigid Nov. leading into balmy Dec or, in some cases, the whole winter for the past decade.
Where eastern trough tho?
Mega torch
Mega torch
The southeast has seen several cool to cold Novembers with not much snow in the months after. I'm all for a shake up in the pattern if it finally leads to a snowy outcome.
Brent
Member
Let's see how this busts 
12z Euro has that covered. It’s been further west with the heaviest rain than then the GFS the last few runs. Would be a tough break if this happens.
Brent
Member
We did pretty good Monday while up near Kansas didn't at least but yeah that wouldnt surprise me
Itryatgolf
Member
On today's 12z euro, looks like piece of pv wants to slip into Northern Plains 9-10 time frame.
This would be arriving just in time for Richmond marathon ??
It’s coming…. per Webber! December is our month!
It’s a step down process.. a few table setters, then blamo! Game on
I think I’ll survive this torch….
In fact it can “torch” like this all of November.
In fact it can “torch” like this all of November.
Welp easy come easy go... should be getting close to transition time then so maybe it will still cool of by then some
???
Shaggy
Member
Sucks so bad that it teases us with some decent rain. We all know this is a joke.???
JHS
Member
It also shows a very cold shot at the end of the run. 20-25 for many of us and high struggling to hit 40. Teens in Tenn.
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