• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern November 2022

Status
Not open for further replies.
Nothing resembling cold anywhere in US East of the Rockies for the end of the month or into Nov with the recent GFS runs. Hopefully that changes and we see some more cold showing up, as well as some more rain somewhere. This current pattern is nice for a general fall feel, but it's quite static and not very conducive to fronts or any rain.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Nothing resembling cold anywhere in US East of the Rockies for the end of the month or into Nov with the recent GFS runs. Hopefully that changes and we see some more cold showing up, as well as some more rain somewhere. This current pattern is nice for a general fall feel, but it's quite static and not very conducive to fronts or any rain.
Click to expand...
This is going a lot like 2001 and somewhat like 2016, which means any real rain is probably about a month away. We probably will not see anymore really cold shots until Dec either.
 
JHS said:
This is going a lot like 2001 and somewhat like 2016, which means any real rain is probably about a month away. We probably will not see anymore really cold shots until Dec either.
Click to expand...

I personally think we have potential of getting cooler with chances of precipitation between thanksgiving and the end of the year


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
JHS said:
This is going a lot like 2001 and somewhat like 2016, which means any real rain is probably about a month away. We probably will not see anymore really cold shots until Dec either.
Click to expand...
I thought triple dipsy doo La Nina, means front loaded winter and torch from late January on??? That’s what most have been saying about this winter!
 
Ollie Williams said:
Apparently, the atmosphere is behaving like an El Nino, so that all goes out the window.
Click to expand...
Well, my first Niña here was fantastic for snow! Last winter was mediocre at best, about half the snow as 20/21, so hopefully 3rd Niña is the charm!
 
Ollie Williams said:
Apparently, the atmosphere is behaving like an El Nino, so that all goes out the window.
Click to expand...
This is why I’m really paying close attention to the winter of 2000-01. It’s the last time there was a 3rd year Niña and there is a definite similarity in that the Niña is showing signs of weakening and at least switching to a neutral Enso
 
How the big indices such as AO, NAO, PNA and so on behave this upcoming month is very important since we are about only six weeks away from the beginning of the met winter.
 
Everything I'm looking at is pretty much zonal through 1st half Nov. Haven't queued in on indices, but EPS,CFS show Canada/US border states as the transition line between true winter wx. Consistent and not in any hurry to sink south. This can and will change. So climo on the temps and BN on qpf still the theme. Need moisture and I just dont see it. We should net .25-.50 western part of NC Sun night per NWs discussion, but farther east you get, NADA. Need a shakeup in NOV and get out of this dry pattern. If we roll through winter BN qpf, we will be in big trouble come next next spring/summer.
 
MJO is the driver, always is. ENSO doesn’t have the pull that it use to. You get in favorable MJO phases like last year and we will freeze. Don’t know about snow as that’s a timing factor but cold for sure. There’s never a wall to wall scenario whether is be cold or warmth. Even during the worst winters you’re going to get periods of cold. Even during the best winters you’re going to get periods of warmth. We went through about a month of heavy east coast troughs from the end of Sep through most of OCt. now we’ve switched to ridging which will likely last 3-4 weeks (More CAD though) before a flip back towards the last 10 days of November.
 
From ERIC WEBB: Fwiw, the ECMWF weeklies, extended GEFS, and JMA weeklies are all on board w/ the idea of a legit -NAO developing in late November. Tried to briefly outline a few reasons why a -NAO is favored (much more than usual) ~ 3-4 weeks from now in this thread yesterday.

Image
Image
Image
Quote Tweet






joXa86c1_normal.jpg


Eric Webb
??
??


@webberweather
·
21h
Oth, wrt the long-term NH circulation pattern, this CCKW might make it easier for next week’s Scandinavia block to retrograde towards Greenland/evolve into a -NAO in weeks 3-4.
 
Itryatgolf said:
From ERIC WEBB: Fwiw, the ECMWF weeklies, extended GEFS, and JMA weeklies are all on board w/ the idea of a legit -NAO developing in late November. Tried to briefly outline a few reasons why a -NAO is favored (much more than usual) ~ 3-4 weeks from now in this thread yesterday.

Image
Image
Image
Quote Tweet






joXa86c1_normal.jpg


Eric Webb
??
??


@webberweather
·
21h
Oth, wrt the long-term NH circulation pattern, this CCKW might make it easier for next week’s Scandinavia block to retrograde towards Greenland/evolve into a -NAO in weeks 3-4.
Click to expand...
Feel like we heard this all last winter, till it finally hit for y’all in January! It’s always 3-4 weeks away from glory! ?⛄️
 
A few things I'm seeing going into the back half of November.

I'm ever-so-slightly favoring a return of the +PNA near month's end, but I'm not confident in it. I do believe though it'll be much less negative than it has been of late though as the Pacific Jet stream extends later in the month in response to returning Maritime Continent - West Pac convection and a possible E Asia Mountain Torque event. The presence of troughing near the Aleutians should squash the Gulf of Alaska ridge at least somewhat I honestly think between the +PNA & -NAO, we're more likely to see the -NAO show up first & perhaps more strongly at that.

Late November this year reminds me a lot of the latter part of last December actually. Mild overall for most of the forum, with maybe a few CAD events thrown in for the Carolinas. Luckily, we're seeing this pattern show up in late November when our snow climo is meh-garbage, and not in late December or late January, so we're really not wasting any winter. Even so, a -NAO/negative - neutral PNA might actually be a good way to build some legitimate snow cover up over southern Canada, the central US, Great Lakes, & perhaps New England as we go into December.

Screen Shot 2022-10-29 at 7.32.33 PM.png


Screen Shot 2022-10-29 at 7.32.41 PM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-29 at 7.32.55 PM.png
 
Detective WX said:
Maybe a warm Nov. to cold Dec for a change? Sept and this month have been cool. We're fed up with frigid Nov. leading into balmy Dec or, in some cases, the whole winter for the past decade.
Click to expand...
The southeast has seen several cool to cold Novembers with not much snow in the months after. I'm all for a shake up in the pattern if it finally leads to a snowy outcome.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top