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Pattern November 2022

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iGRXY said:
Pattern changes are always rushed. Typically last 3-6 weeks and the week of thanksgiving would be the end of that time frame.
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Yeah… the way that it appears to be progressing is very similar to 2nd half of the December last year. Many of the models were trying to switch the pattern up right after Christmas, but it obviously came right after the the New Year
 
Rare November snows in Brazil happening now. Hopefully the pattern here flips to more seasonal.

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when state opened the playbook up and devin leary threw like 5 tds against *checks notes* uconn in mid september, well, i kind of feel the same about perfect patterns at thanksgiving. would rather not waste that so early on. im sleeping until december
 
I'm taking advantage of this warm November weather with a day off and a trip to the beach today to go fishing. The weather on the southern beaches looks good and the fishing reports have been saying the spot run is on along with other species so I might as well enjoy a warm November day doing something I love. I think the long range pattern will shift to colder weather around Thanksgiving and hopefully it will lock in and give us all a chance for numerous winter weather opportunities.
 
This warm period will be fleeting it looks like per models. Some 80 degree days possible this weekend for sure but look out. After a broad area of low pressure backs into the SE coast and hopefully delivers widespread much needed rain to the area.. a lot of blocking and +PNA / -EPO action begins to take shape on most models .. this is still hedging on the mid to long range but most models continue with the trend that around mid to late month things will get much colder around here. You get this type of ridging out west coming into the beginning of winter and all bets are off ! A1936611-8EF9-4806-B6F1-6EEC38A6BED5.jpeg29280606-7D81-4470-90E0-AC7DDAB599A5.jpeg
 
But we can’t forget about what comes first. We need to figure out this area of broad low pressure first. Most models give us some sort of beneficial rain experience out of it. Would like to see the maximum potential out of this with how dry it has been around here. Could be some subtropical hybrid stuff going on .. models don’t have a clear picture of evolution but they all have rain so it’s a positive. 575450A6-C772-41C9-8368-87B3894CE7E0.jpegB7184ECD-0982-4B62-82BD-3E7F5C753907.jpeg37CF39A6-DE80-43DE-A545-8929B2E926CE.jpeg
 
These warm patterns always seem to hang on longer then modeled. I see my local forecast now has a lot of 60s for lows now, even touching 80 next Monday. More lake days ahead.
 
Temps in the 80s and then a possible tropical system in November. Might as well get a chance of snow in there since we're going extreme.
 
Not sure how many know Raindance from American weather. He is from New Mexico I believe. Supposed to be well respected in the weather community. He pretty much is saying we better enjoy a week or so end of November then the furnace starts☹
 
So last year I was to run a marathon in Savannah 1st weekend of Nov. Thanks to strong blocking and a very unusual stubborn low, it got canceled 1 hour before the start due to 30 mph winds, heavy rain and temps in the 40s. This year I'm running Richmond next weekend and my goodness I hope this is wrong. ?‍♂️?‍♂️ @ILMRoss a little help here
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Itryatgolf said:
Not sure how many know Raindance from American weather. He is from New Mexico I believe. Supposed to be well respected in the weather community. He pretty much is saying we better enjoy a week or so end of November then the furnace starts☹
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DeeeeTeeeeee is a little more well respected and known and he says your snake charmer oil salesman you dig up on the dark web, is wrong0803862E-614E-4189-A6BC-AE7A89BA6C1D.png
 
Itryatgolf said:
Not sure how many know Raindance from American weather. He is from New Mexico I believe. Supposed to be well respected in the weather community. He pretty much is saying we better enjoy a week or so end of November then the furnace starts☹
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Well, that means I don't have to use propane to heat my home, so it's not all bad. I would think that a -NAO might help mitigate that some. I would like to see some supporting documentation for this prognostication.
 
Glad to see the GFS sticking with the pattern change on the 13th; still a ways out but the front really comes through on the 12th so only 8 days away. Here's a snapshot of the 14th; looks fantastic!


gfs_T2m_us_41.png


Euro also shows the front sweeping through on the 13th.

ecmwf_T2m_us_63.png
 
Beautiful, moist day ! 62 in DBQ and 41 here In Waterloo! 6A64C1E3-1955-4800-B9C6-7DEEDA3FF69A.png2A3D2AD7-2FC1-422F-B404-5A8259D01830.png
 
Interesting that the GFS has a cat 2 hurricane making landfall in 5 days in Florida .. lol.. not much support for that strength but have to continue to monitor that situation as any low pressure around the Bahamas have to be kept a close eye on. In terms of how this effects our weather.. I do believe seeing more support for at least some sort of weaker in general tropical low pressure headed towards the south east .. this will continue to bring our chances of a more significant rain event that’s more widespread across our area late next week into the weekend99D6F706-0312-4BFA-B455-B51664DCC780.jpeg7C404B05-26E8-4A1E-B035-9A57390E1D3F.jpegB367F446-532F-4C70-B614-FA719DEA1592.jpegB8DE6CFC-15C2-48D3-B7EF-8354DF135519.jpeg
 
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