I personally think that it’s probably trying to rush a pattern change which is normal. I think it will be the week of Thanksgiving before we see something like this
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Pattern November 2022
- Thread starter Metwannabe
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iGRXY
Member
Pattern changes are always rushed. Typically last 3-6 weeks and the week of thanksgiving would be the end of that time frame.
Yeah… the way that it appears to be progressing is very similar to 2nd half of the December last year. Many of the models were trying to switch the pattern up right after Christmas, but it obviously came right after the the New Year
severestorm
Member
Rare November snows in Brazil happening now. Hopefully the pattern here flips to more seasonal.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
wow isn't it almost summer in Brazil ?Rare November snows in Brazil happening now. Hopefully the pattern here flips to more seasonal.
iGRXY
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Do we still the Winter Storm model archive page? We had another fantasy snowstorm show up yesterday
when state opened the playbook up and devin leary threw like 5 tds against *checks notes* uconn in mid september, well, i kind of feel the same about perfect patterns at thanksgiving. would rather not waste that so early on. im sleeping until december
weather bubba
Member
I'm taking advantage of this warm November weather with a day off and a trip to the beach today to go fishing. The weather on the southern beaches looks good and the fishing reports have been saying the spot run is on along with other species so I might as well enjoy a warm November day doing something I love. I think the long range pattern will shift to colder weather around Thanksgiving and hopefully it will lock in and give us all a chance for numerous winter weather opportunities.
iGRXY
Member
GFS continues to paint some serious troughing in the day 11 range before a really big dump comes in right after that and gives the mountains of TN/NC and western foothills snow and serious NW flow.
This warm period will be fleeting it looks like per models. Some 80 degree days possible this weekend for sure but look out. After a broad area of low pressure backs into the SE coast and hopefully delivers widespread much needed rain to the area.. a lot of blocking and +PNA / -EPO action begins to take shape on most models .. this is still hedging on the mid to long range but most models continue with the trend that around mid to late month things will get much colder around here. You get this type of ridging out west coming into the beginning of winter and all bets are off ! 
But we can’t forget about what comes first. We need to figure out this area of broad low pressure first. Most models give us some sort of beneficial rain experience out of it. Would like to see the maximum potential out of this with how dry it has been around here. Could be some subtropical hybrid stuff going on .. models don’t have a clear picture of evolution but they all have rain so it’s a positive. 
4 weeks realistically
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
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mountain explorer
Member
Beautiful Indian Summer here today!
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Most likely 6 weeks
March in reality
These warm patterns always seem to hang on longer then modeled. I see my local forecast now has a lot of 60s for lows now, even touching 80 next Monday. More lake days ahead.
Does that have the northeast trend? If not add two more weeks.
8 weeks.
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