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Pattern November 2022

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Can always be worse, I reckon! ?EE70A6F3-CBFB-4EC0-A772-A6FE50FBB775.png
 
Is it just me or the cold is starting the back off tremendously on the models? And it’s only for a very short period of time


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Loganelliott99 said:
Is it just me or the cold is starting the back off tremendously on the models? And it’s only for a very short period of time


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At least we don't have to wade through the "wasting the good pattern too early" routine.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I agree. I just hope this isn’t a theme of winter. Models start off by showing a huge cold shot just to retrograde back west of the apps and mid south


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Isn't that usually our typical winter pattern? ?
 
6z GFS doesn't look very warm though the LR. I mean, it's not icebox or anything, but it doesn't look all that warm. The trough axis pretty much stays in the center of the country. My guess is that's what winter will feature a lot of, when it actually does get cold.
 
We’re wasting a great pattern on to early climo. Active southern stream with a mean longwave trough hanging around the central/eastern Us. This place would be balls on walls crazy if we had this look in January. It’s just southern stream after southern stream with northern stream confluence. Get ready for cold rains. Mountain areas (@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment )I’d watch next week for some wintry precip in the in-situ CAD fashion at the very least 1D800064-290A-4E7A-8B32-BF6FCD51133D.jpegCB51E180-7042-4D08-8211-96184F501FC0.jpegDAA3BF40-0977-4CFF-AAC0-F1C388DB6935.png
 
smast16 said:
Mid West Ice box of 22-23.
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Yes, I agree. The mid-west and northeast are going to see a very harsh winter. It starts now and probably won't let up until May. The southeast will remain "normal" with periods of cold followed by nice warm-ups. I think this pattern coming up next week will repeat after a two week break, maybe in late December. So cool through Thanksgiving, then a two to three week warm-up (may hit 80 one more time in early December?), then cold for second half of December. This is for Atlanta. I think CAD will moderate NC's warm up. The jet stream is "loose", so when it does get cold, look out below! But when it gets warm, it will feel like spring.
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, I agree. The mid-west and northeast are going to see a very harsh winter. It starts now and probably won't let up until May. The southeast will remain "normal" with periods of cold followed by nice warm-ups. I think this pattern coming up next week will repeat after a two week break, maybe in late December. So cool through Thanksgiving, then a two to three week warm-up (may hit 80 one more time in early December?), then cold for second half of December. This is for Atlanta. I think CAD will moderate NC's warm up. The jet stream is "loose", so when it does get cold, look out below! But when it gets warm, it will feel like spring.
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Sorry, I highly doubt 80 in December,,,we'll see..
 
Rain Cold said:
6z GFS doesn't look very warm though the LR. I mean, it's not icebox or anything, but it doesn't look all that warm. The trough axis pretty much stays in the center of the country. My guess is that's what winter will feature a lot of, when it actually does get cold.
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12z Either! 12z ? 496967FD-6739-4066-9FE9-7C0BD7168CB6.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you think we’re going to see snow next week… you’re probably wrong. Times you shouldn’t get excited about snow is mid November .. it’s always possible but you should never expect anything but an ice cold rain when we are way out of our climo
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Oh Really? Just kidding of course. I see flurries from time to time in November but this was the most snow I’ve ever seen in that month since living here in 2006. This was November 30th 2020. I personally don’t bother getting to worked up over snow until Early January. It’s always possible but very rare most seasons for the majority of us to get a good snow before January.
53A385E7-3E56-4D2F-9A25-49CC8C625BA4.jpeg
 
olhausen said:
Oh Really? Just kidding of course. I see flurries from time to time in November but this was the most snow I’ve ever seen in that month since living here in 2006. This was November 30th 2020. I personally don’t bother getting to worked up over snow until Early January. It’s always possible but very rare most seasons for the majority of us to get a good snow before January.
View attachment 123579
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I want to see you get enough snow to collapse that inflatable snow man. Pattern looks ripe for Nashville to score over the next few weeks.
 
Snowlover87 said:
It seems to me like early in the season it's easier to get cold and wintry weather in places like Oklahoma than it is in a place further east like North Carolina.
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Eh. It’s actually been like that for the whole winter the last several years other than January of this year


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YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I recall seeing snow falling in NC before Thanksgiving in early 2000s-ish. Accumulation purely rate driven. Not heavy enough in Triad, but enough for maybe an inch or so in the sandhills/s piedmont because of heavier precip.

So yea it's possible in theory?
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It snowed here pre Thanksgiving in 2013. I've still yet to see December snow though.
 
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