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Pattern November 2022

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NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting that the GFS has a cat 2 hurricane making landfall in 5 days in Florida .. lol.. not much support for that strength but have to continue to monitor that situation as any low pressure around the Bahamas have to be kept a close eye on. In terms of how this effects our weather.. I do believe seeing more support for at least some sort of weaker in general tropical low pressure headed towards the south east .. this will continue to bring our chances of a more significant rain event that’s more widespread across our area late next week into the weekendView attachment 123449View attachment 123450View attachment 123451View attachment 123452
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I have a hard time buying a hurricane but it's definitely interesting when a lot of people including me thought the US season was over. Not much climo this late either
 
Continued support after this mild period that once that low pressure exits the region we could easily see a much colder pattern around here. Gotta love seeing this heading into the beginning portions of winter. Hopefully we can pull off a cold thanksgiving too! 14BC115E-81C0-495F-AAD1-4EF298B5BF8D.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Continued support after this mild period that once that low pressure exits the region we could easily see a much colder pattern around here. Gotta love seeing this heading into the beginning portions of winter. Hopefully we can pull off a cold thanksgiving too! View attachment 123457
Click to expand...
lol and somehow the cold air manages to miss Florida again. Is the SER at it again ?
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Time for a little breakdown to practice for winter.
What is the first thing that comes to your brain when you see this image above?
At first you think that it's just a rainmaker as part of a former tropical system.
However, I see a narrow miss of a snowstorm for the interior NE and mid-Atlantic.
Here is why.
sout.png
Lets look at the energy involved in this setup.
We have a former tropical system in northern florida and a trough swinging down and east, north of the lakes.
In this model run this trough pushes the southern energy NE and out of the way for nothing but a rainmaker for us and the NE.
However, you slide that southern enrgy to the west a good bit and boom we have a phase and an early snowstorm for a good portion of the interior mid-atlantic and NE.
What I didn't tell you is that the two pieces of energy do phase but way too late as seen below.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

If this was mid-winter and I saw this setup, I would be rooting very heavily for the southern energy to slide more west, because this is closer than you think.
Also I'm still learning here, so do correct me if you see some reasoning that is off.
 
LukeBarrette said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png

Time for a little breakdown to practice for winter.
What is the first thing that comes to your brain when you see this image above?
At first you think that it's just a rainmaker as part of a former tropical system.
However, I see a narrow miss of a snowstorm for the interior NE and mid-Atlantic.
Here is why.
View attachment 123458
Lets look at the energy involved in this setup.
We have a former tropical system in northern florida and a trough swinging down and east, north of the lakes.
In this model run this trough pushes the southern energy NE and out of the way for nothing but a rainmaker for us and the NE.
However, you slide that southern enrgy to the west a good bit and boom we have a phase and an early snowstorm for a good portion of the interior mid-atlantic and NE.
What I didn't tell you is that the two pieces of energy do phase but way too late as seen below.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png

If this was mid-winter and I saw this setup, I would be rooting very heavily for the southern energy to slide more west, because this is closer than you think.
Also I'm still learning here, so do correct me if you see some reasoning that is off.
Click to expand...
I think you’re right. This wouldn’t be that far off at all for a Mid-Atlantic to New England crush job.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Hydrangeas are leafing out like crazy. Is that normal?


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Click to expand...
The new normal, yes!
They like all the moisture and then throw in the warm temps, it could kill the buds, and not have any blooms next spring/summer
 
Tarheel1 said:
The new normal, yes!
They like all the moisture and then throw in the warm temps, it could kill the buds, and not have any blooms next spring/summer
Click to expand...

I mean it’s insane. I’ve seen this in early early Feb when we get a false spring but I’ve never seen it in early November after a couple of frosts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Continued support after this mild period that once that low pressure exits the region we could easily see a much colder pattern around here. Gotta love seeing this heading into the beginning portions of winter. Hopefully we can pull off a cold thanksgiving too! View attachment 123457
Click to expand...
12z EPS is quite chilly after next week.
 
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