Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I realize there’s no point in posting 180hr snow maps, but the GFS is still showing some
potential behind wave 2

 

[LovingGulfLows]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

That's very true. Surface temps are just a tad too warm but a lot could change!

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[Disco_Lemonade]

You are definitely probably right. Just something fun to see atm haha

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True I still cant wait to bring up the radar and goes imagery and bask in its stormy goodness

 

[SETNwx]

0z GFS actually trended colder with the 2nd wave....the 850mb 0c isotherm actually go farther south into GA. The ULL is also a lot further south than the 18z run.

*shoves all chips in the middle of the table before looking at cards

 

[LovingGulfLows]

That's very true. Surface temps are just a tad too warm but a lot could change!

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The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

 

[Clem282340]

The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

Can it even go a little further south

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Can it even go a little further south

Possibly....who knows....surface temps are bleh though. You would have to hope the ULL goes over you at night to get cooperating temperatures at and near the surface.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The core of the ULL was in Kentucky...now it's centered over far SW NC. Actually a really significant trend southwest in one run.

18z

0z

It noticed it has tightened up considerably over the last several runs as well fwiw

 

[Clem282340]

Possibly....who knows....surface temps are bleh though. You would have to hope the ULL goes over you at night to get cooperating temperatures at and near the surface.

Looks like Ull is going right over the upstate but there no snow showing on the gfs

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

An absolute absurd amount of disagreement on the GEFS for the second wave

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[accu35]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Watching this little guy around the GLs (same wave euro showed at 12z)

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

00z gfs looks pretty darn chilly

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[Disco_Lemonade]

Man that cold on the GFS seems like it wants to last forever. It just wont quit!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Snowflake watch ?

 

[BufordWX]

CMC showing some snow showers for parts of Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia with wave 2.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Getting a bit more interesting for areas outside the mountains on gefs as well

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Atlanta's urban heat island is much more pronounced than virtually any other in the SE US

View attachment 54200

I don’t understand why the precip cuts off at the NC/SC line in every model.

Mountains cut off the precipitation in the NW flow.

Stephen, also, this is what downslopping does for us. When the wind is coming over the mountains the cold is not only delayed, but we have a downslopping effect. Basically, as the air falls down from the mountains, the moisture gets wringed out by the mountains and dries out. It also compresses and heats up. N Al and GA aren't affected nearly as much due to the orientation of the typical flow, and the surrounding mountains aren't nearly as high so they can still get in on some action. The map webber posted shows this well. Cold west of the mountains and over the mountains, then the cold anomalies end abruptly in the leeside, and you even see a switch to warm anomalies. The cold is able to wrap around the apps to the south some, which is why you can see the cold around the South of ATL. Ain't winter fun in SC?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Stephen, also, this is what downslopping does for us. When the wind is coming over the mountains the cold is not only delayed, but we have a downslopping effect. Basically, as the air falls down from the mountains, the moisture gets wringed out by the mountains and dries out. It also compresses and heats up. N Al and GA aren't affected nearly as much due to the orientation of the typical flow, and the surrounding mountains aren't nearly as high so they can still get in on some action. The map webber posted shows this well. Cold west of the mountains and over the mountains, then the cold anomalies end abruptly in the leeside, and you even see a switch to warm anomalies. The cold is able to wrap around the apps to the south some, which is why you can see the cold around the South of ATL. Ain't winter fun in SC?

Theres not a lot of mountains NW of Atlanta, not the high mountains you see in NE GA and NC so that may help the cold air get to Atlanta easier than the Carolinas.