Six Mile Wx
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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
NoSnowATL
Member
And so it begins.....
FYI- before the complaining starts about "too soon" "jinx" whatever else, stop it, the thread is fine. The only suggestion I have is maybe opening up the dates on the title a little bit.
WXinCanton
Member
To have storm thread or to be even contemplating one on November 24th is pretty nuts!!!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even this far out, I think it's pretty safe to say w/ near-certainty that someone east of the Rockies between Texas & Oklahoma to the Carolinas is going to see some significant winter weather during the first week of December from this upper level low given the active subtropical jet and very favorable longwave pattern/Rex blocking that'll be in place. That's about the extent of what we know regarding this "threat" atm.
Important to also keep in mind that upper lows and Rex blocking patterns are among the most unpredictable features to forecast and are usually full of surprises even in the short range, so expect a ton of changes between now & early December, arguably even more than you're accustomed to seeing in the day 9-10+ range.
Important to also keep in mind that upper lows and Rex blocking patterns are among the most unpredictable features to forecast and are usually full of surprises even in the short range, so expect a ton of changes between now & early December, arguably even more than you're accustomed to seeing in the day 9-10+ range.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Six Mile Wx
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I say give it 5 days and we see where we are at then take swings at 3 cities or locations for totals and/or temps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A +4 sigma PNA...
Umm wow
Might need to look into some statistics down the line to see how unusual/anomalous this is on a daily scale
Umm wow
Might need to look into some statistics down the line to see how unusual/anomalous this is on a daily scale
Jessy89
Member
It’s not to early for this thread. Because we all need it to move off of politics. But I will say hopefully things become clearer on this event after thanksgiving! Pretty excited to have something to track
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The most recent example I can find of a major winter storm in NC that occurred when of the EPO, NAO, WPO, & PNA, only the PNA was favorable occurred in January 2018 courtesy of (you guessed it) an upper level low.
A few honorable mentions to Dec 16-17 1973 & Jan 23-24 1955 that produced significant winter storms in NC during patterns where only the PNA was favorable
A few honorable mentions to Dec 16-17 1973 & Jan 23-24 1955 that produced significant winter storms in NC during patterns where only the PNA was favorable
I'll take any of those the first week of Dec and not complain one bit.
That first system is still on my mind for maybe some backside snow or something in NC/VA/TN, but man that STJ is a beaut.... 
BufordWX
Member
I know the better chance for snow on the board will be the ULL, but don’t sleep on the first system completely. Still got a few good GEFS members for parts of the area early next week. Mountain support at the least looks somewhat better.
I like it 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Any of those will do
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
According to the GFS ensemble, we may be about to see the first +2 sigma (or greater) PNA day in December for the first time since 2014 & only the 2nd time since 2001.
Wow
Wow
It's about freaking time.
Is this due to that 120E forcing that HM kept mentioning back in October/early November ? Because it sure is paying off
Going off what Webber already talked about:
PNA - Going strongly positive (has been showing this for past few days)
NAO - Looks to go negative in LR (first real negative depiction by average)
AO - Looks to go negative in LR (first real negative depiction by average)
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
PNA - Going strongly positive (has been showing this for past few days)
NAO - Looks to go negative in LR (first real negative depiction by average)
AO - Looks to go negative in LR (first real negative depiction by average)
CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections (noaa.gov)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah it explains a large fraction of what we're seeing here imo, in early December 120E forcing is the antidote to getting rid of the SE US ridge. That changes as we go into mid-December however
Even with a early phase, icon shows some backside snow into the NC foothills/piedmont into SC
Is this a good thing? I have no idea
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Looks like the trough is out ahead of the system. Which is a good thing. Just need it to digIs this a good thing? I have no idea
Icon has highs in the mid to upper 30s..... and also fires of some interesting snow under the cold pocket aloft
Dawgdaze22
Member
Yes
I mentioned this earlier but the soundings on the GFS are actually supportive of wet snow for most of the Piedmont and Upsate with this system. I have a feeling it will ultimately be determined by the track of the upper low and just what kind of precip rates we see.
Wouldn’t shock me if it’s a bit Convective as well if we do indeed getting something with the cold pocket aloft itself
Icon was so close
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You really need to see the center of the upper low track just to your west & south to get the best chance to see the heaviest snow bands pivot over your location from wraparound moisture & lift in the elevated warm conveyor belt. March 12, 2018 is an example that immediately comes to mind for places just east of Raleigh as the center of an upper low went thru the midlands-lowlands of SC.
Probably gonna be an early phase on the GFS which is no bueno
I'm sure it's happened but I just don't recall too many snows this far east from an ULL, this one might be as close as it ever got. I'm an overrunning or coastal and the occasional overperforming clipper kind of sweet spot location. Lol
That’s still a severe weather look for areas near the gulf coast 
Gfs is going to be similar to the icon with the southern wave coming through first then the northern steam digging down the back and possibly closing off. Best chance of snow in that scenario is what webb laid out a few posts ago.
BufordWX
Member
Backside snow in Tennessee and Northern Alabama.