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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

-EPO starting to be hinted at near the end of the GEFS as we approach mid December
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Yes, but be careful what you wish for as you know that the SER could reappear very easily at any point and even become dominant if that ridge gets too far west. Also, the waters in the W PAC are still very warm and we’re in a moderate to strong ala Niña, a combo that the SER typically loves.

I’d be thrilled if the W Canadian +PNA block were to stay put. There’s no better a setup than that to keep the entire SE cold.
 
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Fwiw icon is showing some showers across the Piedmont with the first wave with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Could be some wet snowflakes

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I know it’s ugly af, but here’s basically what you want to happen, it’s not far from the GFS but the wave is farther south, and the dying upper level trough in Canada is decaying further south as well
(Ignore the precip I just added it for fun) C9F0780D-4D87-48B6-B57E-97B989B79D8D.gif
 
Yeah this isn't a good setup for us upstaters, or SC peeps in general. Here's my nonthechnical take. The low isn't where we need it. We need a low tracking much further South along the gulf coast or just inland, then slightly inland and up the seaboard. In the setups like this one the mountains to our North, NW, AND West all block the cold air and dry out the moisture, which is a bad combo for snow. Northern AL, GA, Atl and even panhandle of FL can get it in these setups b/c the wraparound moisture can moe into the cold without having to travel over or through the mountains (it can go around the mountains instead) so they're not subject to downslopping, which drys and warms the air. The western upstate is especially vulnerable to this, and by the time the cold air makes it to us, the moisture has either been dried out or is gone completely. We need a better placed low and the cold needs to already be in place for us. Unfortunately, either of those rarely seem to happen any more, and both together has become almost unobtainable.
Nailed it!
 
This is precisely why I prefer a split flow pattern with a wave entering Baja. Puts everyone in play
 
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