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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

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Cmc has the same idea that 12z gefs is showing
 
Eh, the cold air source is so marginal...completely relying on the upper level core to pass over or to the South of you, not to mention the mid-level cold core moderates in temperature as it moves east. Sadly, it's too early for big arctic highs to funnel in deeper cold air into the region so you're relying on these extremely marginal setups. I don't see potential for a "board wide storm" here. Northern areas of MS/AL/(maybe GA) and TN are favored in this pattern since the ULL is much colder when he passes over those areas.
 
whatalife said:
Look at that conveyor belt...
f951a4571f8b6e251eea8aaad7fd2d27.gif



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Click to expand...
A lot of that is really nice. But the big elephant in the room is the utter lack of arctic air to be injected into the pattern. For the Midwest and the mountains, it doesn't matter much. For most of the rest of us, we need to rely on dynamics and absolute perfect timing and probably nighttime to get much of anything other than rain, especially this early in the season.

We need a feed of arctic air, which a -EPO can help with. The big block over Western Canada and the active STJ is nice to see, though. Hopefully, that continues and we get the rest of it to go with it.

At least for now, we won't be in a drought, and we might even get some tstorms and windy conditions.
 
Tropical tidbits is super slow. I thought the CMC vort maps looked pretty damn good in all honesty for round 2. Totally different than the crap salad the GFS was showing.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Eh, the cold air source is so marginal...completely relying on the upper level core to pass over or to the South of you, not to mention the mid-level cold core moderates in temperature as it moves east. Sadly, it's too early for big arctic highs to funnel in deeper cold air into the region so you're relying on these extremely marginal setups. I don't see potential for a "board wide storm" here. Northern areas of MS/AL/(maybe GA) and TN are favored in this pattern since the ULL is much colder when he passes over those areas.
Click to expand...
Im not sure December is too early to have a big Arctic high. It's been pretty bitterly cold in December.
 
Rain Cold said:
A lot of that is really nice. But the big elephant in the room is the utter lack of arctic air to be injected into the pattern. For the Midwest and the mountains, it doesn't matter much. For most of the rest of us, we need to rely on dynamics and absolute perfect timing and probably nighttime to get much of anything other than rain, especially this early in the season.

We need a feed of arctic air, which a -EPO can help with. The big block over Western Canada and the active STJ is nice to see, though. Hopefully, that continues and we get the rest of it to go with it.

At least for now, we won't be in a drought, and we might even get some tstorms and windy conditions.
Click to expand...

BUT BUT BUT... At the end of the day you need both. Rarely do you get both at the start of December. It is what it is...


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