Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

[Myfrotho704_]

TBH, I like the wave's look as it's maturing. However, It needs to be connected to a cold air source before it brings cold air into the system like 06z.
View attachment 53936

Yeah that’s a solid look, like you said just needs better cold air injection and we good, one thing I’m already noticing with this is that BL temps look extremely marginal

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wave two is just really sloppy when it drops in on this run tbh

 

[Ollie Williams]

One thing that I think could happen w/ wave #2 is a strong jet over the EC, to allow the storm to deepen off the coast. That would create its own cold air. Member 30 of the GEFS shows that at 06z.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, I like this look right here

 

[Arcc]

I know it’s ugly af, but here’s basically what you want to happen, it’s not far from the GFS but the wave is farther south, and the dying upper level trough in Canada is decaying further south as well
(Ignore the precip I just added it for fun) View attachment 53923

Alaska needs to trend more negative.

All in all, incredible work.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Alaska needs to trend more negative.

All in all, incredible work.

Yeah, otherwise the waves over the SW are just going to get trapped and spin around.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Couple members have flurries making it south of the apps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That PNA ridge on the GFS looking like our southeast ridge, unbreakable

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Couple members have flurries making it south of the apps

Yeah I feel like some of those snow showers/flurries could break containment and make it to the foothills

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Leaves a bit of our energy behind over the SW. We need that thing consolidated and pulled eastward. All of it

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

Wow, I like this look right here View attachment 53940

I like that. Lower heights in se Canada and energy keeps coming into the sw. If that PNA can hold and not retrograde enough to let the SER back in I like our chances the 2nd week of Dec.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I like that. Lower heights in se Canada and energy keeps coming into the sw. If that PNA can hold and not retrograde enough to let the SER back in I like our chances the 2nd week of Dec.

That's what we said about the first week of December

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[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

That's what we said about the first week of December

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The first week never really looked good. Not enough of a cold air push with that coast to coast Canadian block. I do think that PNA ridge is a couple hundred miles too far east. But that is just taking it verbatim.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like that. Lower heights in se Canada and energy keeps coming into the sw. If that PNA can hold and not retrograde enough to let the SER back in I like our chances the 2nd week of Dec.

Yeah this is a more dec 2018 look with actual lower heights more towards the 50/50 area, like this a lot more than a ridge in that area

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Precip hasn’t loaded yet but

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Probably rain for most unless your near the cold core

 

[whatalife]

Look at that conveyor belt...

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[jackendrickwx]

Consistency 3000

 

[jackendrickwx]

Goodness we ain’t gonna know crap bout wave 2 till it’s 90 hours out at this rate. The spread on the GEFS is stupid

 

[accu35]

I'll take my chances with wave 2