ajr
Member
Another big change in the 6z GFS -- this time it spins up a big noreaster that blankets interior NE.
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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
FWIW GEFS member 30 has a nice storm in the SE for wave #2
From what I've seen, WRF models are fairly easy to make, and you don't need supercomputers for it. Look up Raspberry Pi weather models, and you'll find more information.
Dang the 06z might be one of the best looks yet at H5, all you need is that shortwave further south and that decaying trough in Canada a bit stronger 
[mention]bouncycorn [/mention] message me. Like to chat on coding.
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[mention]bouncycorn [/mention]
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[mention]bouncycorn [/mention]
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Just a general thing that is off topic that I've seen a lot of people doing is the mention in brackets to mention a user. It's different and actually easier. Just do @thenameofthemember to mention them.
Great run for the mtns
That 1st system is going to only likely produce any snow in the higher terrain in the SE IMO. I still think we need to watch the 2nd one.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I've thought that all along. Just need to hunt for cold air.
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Montanasnow30
Member
I may snow chase down south if boys get any snow next week up here in Montana its been cold and dry
Montanasnow30
Member
I agree with at @deltadog03 I think that second wave bears more watching then the first wave but I think once we can at least get through Saturday the models should be more clearer on what it wants to due with the first system regardless anything beyond 4 or 5 days out is pure voodoo something James Spann use to say when mentioning any possible winter weather
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Meant to post this last night but fell asleep. This looks much more realistic than the 18z run.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Yes the MMFS is my model that I developed and run on my own network.
ajr
Member
Out of curiosity (I program and am tempted to do some weather-related hobby projects) what is your model based on? How is it different from other models?
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
The MMFS is similar to a setup like this but the traditional WRF uses GFS data as a foundation whereas I run a global model as well on the MPAS platform which I have coded the WRF to assimilate instead of the GFS.
Because I run the MMFS at longer ranges and at super resolution(generally1-2km resolution within 84 hours), I do allocate a significant amount of resources to it. I run a network of “bots” which are made up of remote computers, servers, and VPSes which are bound together and load balance the processes.. so it adds up to being equal to pretty much a very large super computer running on the cloud.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Yeah this isn't a good setup for us upstaters, or SC peeps in general. Here's my nonthechnical take. The low isn't where we need it. We need a low tracking much further South along the gulf coast or just inland, then slightly inland and up the seaboard. In the setups like this one the mountains to our North, NW, AND West all block the cold air and dry out the moisture, which is a bad combo for snow. Northern AL, GA, Atl and even panhandle of FL can get it in these setups b/c the wraparound moisture can moe into the cold without having to travel over or through the mountains (it can go around the mountains instead) so they're not subject to downslopping, which drys and warms the air. The western upstate is especially vulnerable to this, and by the time the cold air makes it to us, the moisture has either been dried out or is gone completely. We need a better placed low and the cold needs to already be in place for us. Unfortunately, either of those rarely seem to happen any more, and both together has become almost unobtainable.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
Like the HRRR and 3km NAM, the MMFS runs on the WRF engine that I have customized with custom physics (bias corrected for the southeast US) and super resolution (usually 1 to 2km grid spacing). I also assimilate a lot of data into the model..generally a lot more than other models.
I have been working on this for a long time but if you just want a basic mid resolution local model, it’s fairly easy to setup the generic WRF on your home computer. Doesn’t require much coding unless you’re looking to make modifications .
Fountainguy97
Member
Wave 1 is quickly becoming a novelty event for many areas even west of the NC state line.
Just not much moisture at all being shown on the back side now.
will be interesting to see if high res models show more backside moisture. Probably not lol
Just not much moisture at all being shown on the back side now.
will be interesting to see if high res models show more backside moisture. Probably not lol