Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

[Avalanche]

Warm sector recovery and wedges by tomorrow

Ying yang.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Kick you sob

 

[Webberweather53]

Kick you sob

Lol well this doesn't look complicated at all

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can the sfc temps respond please, that’s a good sounding if you can lower sfc temps

 

[Myfrotho704_]

.... lol

 

[Webberweather53]

What feature is causing this southern trend? I mean, that is pretty substantial.

Looks like the GFS got a little too overzealous w/ the northern stream disturbance, it's much flatter/progressive in recent runs (kind of shocking tbh because the opposite is usually true!)

 

[Webberweather53]

Can the sfc temps respond please, that’s a good sounding if you can lower sfc tempsView attachment 53685

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

 

[BufordWX]

CMC looks good for Tennessee.

 

[Webberweather53]

.... lol View attachment 53688

Alright, bring along a friend while you're at it, give us 2 for the price of one.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Damn the energy over the four corners sort of just meanders in one spot and can never truly phase with the upper level trough diving down over the east.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

Given the cold air aloft would heavier rates help in that situation to cool the surface effectively, especially if there’s a dewpoint spread ?

 

[Ollie Williams]

Looking good so far on the CMC!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let’s see what CMC does

 

[BufordWX]

CMC looks good for Tennessee.View attachment 53689

Actually brings flurries through much of Georgia as well. Lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Subtropical jet still going ? ? after wave 1 departs

 

[Ollie Williams]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.

 

[Fountainguy97]

With the freezing level at or below 900mb in this sounding, we could probably snow w/ surface temps well above freezing, arguably in the 40s even.

yeah Pretty classic look there for convective snow showers even if surface is 40-45.

 

[Webberweather53]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.
View attachment 53696

Lol of course massive mid-level warm nose ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SMH, looks like more cold rain on the CMC.
View attachment 53696

Womp

 

[Webberweather53]

Given the cold air aloft would heavier rates help in that situation to cool the surface effectively, especially if there’s a dewpoint spread ?

Yeah absolutely, you'd have melting, sublimation, downward sensible heat transfer, & adiabatic lift all acting to cool the column