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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Ollie Williams said:
TBH, I like the wave's look as it's maturing. However, It needs to be connected to a cold air source before it brings cold air into the system like 06z.
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Yeah that’s a solid look, like you said just needs better cold air injection and we good, one thing I’m already noticing with this is that BL temps look extremely marginal 2DE081F3-615B-4F5A-A232-1EEEA1463447.png045BAA18-DD30-4153-90EB-8993FDA45562.png619EBCB9-E089-434E-80DE-0A0268756A46.png
 
One thing that I think could happen w/ wave #2 is a strong jet over the EC, to allow the storm to deepen off the coast. That would create its own cold air. Member 30 of the GEFS shows that at 06z.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know it’s ugly af, but here’s basically what you want to happen, it’s not far from the GFS but the wave is farther south, and the dying upper level trough in Canada is decaying further south as well
(Ignore the precip I just added it for fun) View attachment 53923
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Alaska needs to trend more negative.

All in all, incredible work.
 
Couple members have flurries making it south of the apps
GEFSMA_prec_ptypens_120.png
 
Loganelliott99 said:
That's what we said about the first week of December

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The first week never really looked good. Not enough of a cold air push with that coast to coast Canadian block. I do think that PNA ridge is a couple hundred miles too far east. But that is just taking it verbatim.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I like that. Lower heights in se Canada and energy keeps coming into the sw. If that PNA can hold and not retrograde enough to let the SER back in I like our chances the 2nd week of Dec.
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Yeah this is a more dec 2018 look with actual lower heights more towards the 50/50 area, like this a lot more than a ridge in that area 11F7070A-5C57-4F1D-957A-7FC7F5CE70A7.png
 
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Eh, the cold air source is so marginal...completely relying on the upper level core to pass over or to the South of you, not to mention the mid-level cold core moderates in temperature as it moves east. Sadly, it's too early for big arctic highs to funnel in deeper cold air into the region so you're relying on these extremely marginal setups. I don't see potential for a "board wide storm" here. Northern areas of MS/AL/(maybe GA) and TN are favored in this pattern since the ULL is much colder when he passes over those areas.
 
whatalife said:
Look at that conveyor belt...
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A lot of that is really nice. But the big elephant in the room is the utter lack of arctic air to be injected into the pattern. For the Midwest and the mountains, it doesn't matter much. For most of the rest of us, we need to rely on dynamics and absolute perfect timing and probably nighttime to get much of anything other than rain, especially this early in the season.

We need a feed of arctic air, which a -EPO can help with. The big block over Western Canada and the active STJ is nice to see, though. Hopefully, that continues and we get the rest of it to go with it.

At least for now, we won't be in a drought, and we might even get some tstorms and windy conditions.
 
Tropical tidbits is super slow. I thought the CMC vort maps looked pretty damn good in all honesty for round 2. Totally different than the crap salad the GFS was showing.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Eh, the cold air source is so marginal...completely relying on the upper level core to pass over or to the South of you, not to mention the mid-level cold core moderates in temperature as it moves east. Sadly, it's too early for big arctic highs to funnel in deeper cold air into the region so you're relying on these extremely marginal setups. I don't see potential for a "board wide storm" here. Northern areas of MS/AL/(maybe GA) and TN are favored in this pattern since the ULL is much colder when he passes over those areas.
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Im not sure December is too early to have a big Arctic high. It's been pretty bitterly cold in December.
 
Rain Cold said:
A lot of that is really nice. But the big elephant in the room is the utter lack of arctic air to be injected into the pattern. For the Midwest and the mountains, it doesn't matter much. For most of the rest of us, we need to rely on dynamics and absolute perfect timing and probably nighttime to get much of anything other than rain, especially this early in the season.

We need a feed of arctic air, which a -EPO can help with. The big block over Western Canada and the active STJ is nice to see, though. Hopefully, that continues and we get the rest of it to go with it.

At least for now, we won't be in a drought, and we might even get some tstorms and windy conditions.
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BUT BUT BUT... At the end of the day you need both. Rarely do you get both at the start of December. It is what it is...


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