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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

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Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
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This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

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The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

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I personally love that look on the 6z GFS this far out
 
SD said:
The only analog site I know of is the cpc upper air tools site if anyone has something else I'd love to see it
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I looked, all are from patterns in November, and Early December which didn't produce snow. However, I wouldn't get upset about that because the pattern probably is taking into account the wavelengths, and may not be catching on to the snow potential.
 
SD said:
I feel like it might be a good time to dust off the learning thread and for us as a community to add to it, the wiki also has links to good resources. Maybe we can start moving some questions into that thread to get answers posted there. I'm sure that poster isn't the only one with those same questions.
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Sounds like a plan.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I looked, all are from patterns in November, and Early December which didn't produce snow. However, I wouldn't get upset about that because the pattern probably is taking into account the wavelengths, and may not be catching on to the snow potential.
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Well not to mention the sample size of analogs is really small & it doesn't snow here in a decent way often even when the pattern is favorable.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I don’t even think the analogs are current.
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Crud lol, well that stinks. I'm sure we could probably run some code that calculates ACC successively over a subset of z500a maps for winter storms here as a good starting point to find good analogs. I also have a gigantic excel sheet of winter storms from 1948 to present and associated, standardized daily NAO, EPO, WPO, & PNA indices as well as the "storm type" that may interest you
 
Webberweather53 said:
Crud lol, well that stinks. I'm sure we could probably run some code that calculates ACC successively over a subset of z500a maps for winter storms here as a good starting point to find good analogs. I also have a gigantic excel sheet of winter storms from 1948 to present and associated, standardized daily NAO, EPO, WPO, & PNA indices as well as the "storm type" that may interest you
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Raises hand for interest in the spreadsheet
 
I heard a rumor about the first week of December and came to check what the board said about it. Looks like I am late to the party. 13 pages already. I had a feeling we could see some surprises in December.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I heard a rumor about the first week of December and came to check what the board said about it. Looks like I am late to the party. 13 pages already. I had a feeling we could see some surprises in December.
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I was wondering when you’d show up. Been busy killing people with your trident?
 
FamouslyHot said:
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For reference, here are the snowfall totals for the January 2018 storm.
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That was a great storm and overachiever. I remember 48 hours before the storm expecting 1-2 inches, but with each NAM run the totals continued to increase. I measured seven inches in Alamance county, but Orange got a foot.
 
tramadoc said:
I still have pics on my phone from that. My daughter was standing on the ice in our pool that week it was so cold.
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I remember walking back from class on USC's campus and getting 5 minutes of snow, then another 5 minutes of rain/snow, and then back to rain. I was so naive those days that I believed the NAM which showed Columbia getting an inch of snow ?‍♂️
 
tramadoc said:
I was wondering when you’d show up. Been busy killing people with your trident?
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xBD.gif
 
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