• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Myfrotho704_ said:
If we get the -NAO like that to come into the picture it’s gonna get vodka cold around here
Click to expand...
What we actually need to get vodka cold is a -EPO to dislodge cooler air from Siberia and feed it into N America, -NAO will continue to provide us more temperate continental polar (Cp) air masses like we are currently seeing, but will afford us better opportunities for properly placed coastal cyclones. A -EPO coupled with a -NAO would be ideal but the wave pattern from -EPO often tends to destroy -NAOs, unless of course we have something to continuously support it (like a stratospheric warming event etc) and/or a strong -AO
 
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

1606301022075.png


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
1606301064117.png


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

1606301188820.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

View attachment 53635


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

View attachment 53637


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

View attachment 53639
Click to expand...

On the other hand, what you often need for a good Miller A in the Carolinas in addition to a deep longwave trough centered just east of the TN/OH valley, is a west-based -NAO, a -AO & -EPO doesn't hurt either.

North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller A Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

Pattern-wise, of the most recent NWP model runs, the 0z operational ECMWF was the closest to reproducing this composite Miller A pattern

1606301438140.png
 
How bout that first wave wraparound snow on the 6z gfs?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a popular misconception that you need to have a cold surface high over New England to get adequate cold air transport for a coastal cyclone/Miller A in the Carolinas & I've been seeing it on here a lot lately. The reality is for coastal cyclones you really don't need it, having a surface high over the midwest is actually pretty optimal

View attachment 53635


Look at all the northerly flow and cold advection ahead of the surface high over the Great Plains
View attachment 53636


This composite of nearly 100 Miller A winter events for NC since 1948 also shows this pretty nicely, there's no cold high over New England or SE Canada

View attachment 53637


The 6z GFS is in about the right place for something here taken at face value.

View attachment 53639
Click to expand...
One thing I remember Eric Thomas off WBTV when I was a kid was him saying a big ole high coming out of the plains and low forming in the gulf. There's alot of truth in your post alot of ppl think a HP to our North is a must...its not unless you want ice with CAD.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
That’s because it’s on the other side of the globe ??‍♂️View attachment 53610

@Rain Cold loves it when it’s over there ?
Click to expand...
Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
 
Rain Cold said:
Lol...I honestly don't know what you guys are chasing. A Midwest snowstorm?! I like the pattern that ultimately appears to develop for some nice chilly weather. Hopefully that continues to show up.
Click to expand...
Ill be in mtns next week late.
Pretty good consensus this closes off over TN. TN and NC mtn posters have a decent shot at some nice leftovers backside.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Okay I will not ask anymore questions.
Click to expand...
Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.
 
accu35 said:
Lol, being a new member is awesome and thank you for joining our team. As I always tell others in the past, if your new the best thing to do is sit back and learn a little. You will find out there are alot of smart and knowledgeable people up in here. I started years ago like you and ask questions and yes there were times I felt yay tall for asking. So keep posting, but be wise about it.
Click to expand...
Eric is just so smart and I don't understand some of the things he posts so I genuinely try to learn. I'll read up on the MJO and some other things. I'm sorry for causing frustration.
 
More backside members
GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_138.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top