BufordWX
Member
Actually the EPS mean from 18z. Makes it look a little better.
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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Six Mile Wx
Member
Six Mile Wx
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Doesn't look like much here, but it's good to see the cold showing up so early, and seeing any snow that early in December is a win
Six Mile Wx
Member
From MRX:
“So in closing, confidence is quite high that the higher terrain
areas will see snow during this event; how much is still to be
determined. The valley is much more uncertain as was mentioned
earlier. I will say that if recent runs of the ECMWF are correct
that there is a very good chance that most valley locations will see
some snow and perhaps even some light accumulations. However, there
are just too many uncertainties at this point to get any more
specific with the forecast. Bottom line, please stay tuned to the
forecast because this system has the potential to bring snow across
much of the area but the uncertainty is very high across the lower
elevations.”
“So in closing, confidence is quite high that the higher terrain
areas will see snow during this event; how much is still to be
determined. The valley is much more uncertain as was mentioned
earlier. I will say that if recent runs of the ECMWF are correct
that there is a very good chance that most valley locations will see
some snow and perhaps even some light accumulations. However, there
are just too many uncertainties at this point to get any more
specific with the forecast. Bottom line, please stay tuned to the
forecast because this system has the potential to bring snow across
much of the area but the uncertainty is very high across the lower
elevations.”
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
BufordWX
Member
I know some folks who are rooting for E21!
The threat looks real December 3-6 Birmingham - Atlanta - Charlotte. Still a good ways out but the players are on the field.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Going to be interesting how the nam sets up these systems the next couple of day
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Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
Same place here. I’ve got surgery to fix that tendon in my finger Tuesday.
Stephenb888
Member
Hey guys I’m new to the board. Love to follow winter weather. I know I’m possibly in the “worst” place possible as far as luck goes (Anderson SC) but hopefully we can get some decent snows around here this year. It’s been too long.
Avalanche
Member
I dont mind a system riding up the apps when there is strong CAD. 0 850 far north of us for this system.
ULL farther north so not as much wrap around further south 
Wave #2 looks good on the ICON.
Im just disliking the 2nd wave more and more due to this, flow is so slowed so it won’t move East 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
About as textbook of a Rex Block as you can get.
Just move it 1000 miles westward and stick a trough in the east.
@Webberweather53
Just move it 1000 miles westward and stick a trough in the east.
@Webberweather53
Oh wait I could see CAD with that look
Looks like it would’ve been a good storm. As long as suppression didn’t squish it to Cuba.
Stephenb888
Member
Why do you say would’ve? Is our chance gone now?
The ULL looks a bit faster this run.
Icon only goes so far out. End of the run was that frame
Looks like the system is in prime position to me at the end of the icon run.. not seeing it suppressed to Cuba.
No I was saying the model only runs out to 180 hours and it could have been interesting had it gone out further.
Clem282340
Member
Is faster good or bad
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Really need the big cold over here on our side. This marginal air mass isn't going to cut it this early in the season.
Avalanche
Member
Even if the placement was off the coast temps would still be marginal.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah this first wave isn't going to produce.
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Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk
??
I wouldn’t cliff dive on the first wave until we get into mesoscale model range.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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If only it was January
I like the ICON solution tbh, give me CAD anyday
This "first wave" is largely post frontal precip for most in this forum-- when do setups like that ever cause significant snow events? Hardly ever. "Second wave" aka Dec 3-5 looks most conducive right now as a miller A setup.
I was thinking that all along.
The GFS doesn’t look very good for the second wave. The key piece that is supposed to come down and phase w/ our wave over the southwest is not in a good position. That’s going to allow the +PNA ridge to trap it and move it westward.
At this timeframe, I would say that a suppression look is what you want to see, as long as the overall pattern is there