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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Another big change in the 6z GFS -- this time it spins up a big noreaster that blankets interior NE.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh174_trend-2.gif
 
[mention]bouncycorn [/mention] message me. Like to chat on coding.


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[mention]bouncycorn [/mention]
 
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wxdaniel said:
[mention]bouncycorn [/mention] message me. Like to chat on coding.


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Just a general thing that is off topic that I've seen a lot of people doing is the mention in brackets to mention a user. It's different and actually easier. Just do @thenameofthemember to mention them.
 
I agree with at @deltadog03 I think that second wave bears more watching then the first wave but I think once we can at least get through Saturday the models should be more clearer on what it wants to due with the first system regardless anything beyond 4 or 5 days out is pure voodoo something James Spann use to say when mentioning any possible winter weather
 
Ollie Williams said:
From what I've seen, WRF models are fairly easy to make, and you don't need supercomputers for it. Look up Raspberry Pi weather models, and you'll find more information.
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The MMFS is similar to a setup like this but the traditional WRF uses GFS data as a foundation whereas I run a global model as well on the MPAS platform which I have coded the WRF to assimilate instead of the GFS.

Because I run the MMFS at longer ranges and at super resolution(generally1-2km resolution within 84 hours), I do allocate a significant amount of resources to it. I run a network of “bots” which are made up of remote computers, servers, and VPSes which are bound together and load balance the processes.. so it adds up to being equal to pretty much a very large super computer running on the cloud.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Can someone tell me where everything would have to line up to actually get snow in upstate Sc (Anderson specifically). I keep seeing chances for everyone around us and even ATL but it’s like we have a forcefield around us.
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Yeah this isn't a good setup for us upstaters, or SC peeps in general. Here's my nonthechnical take. The low isn't where we need it. We need a low tracking much further South along the gulf coast or just inland, then slightly inland and up the seaboard. In the setups like this one the mountains to our North, NW, AND West all block the cold air and dry out the moisture, which is a bad combo for snow. Northern AL, GA, Atl and even panhandle of FL can get it in these setups b/c the wraparound moisture can moe into the cold without having to travel over or through the mountains (it can go around the mountains instead) so they're not subject to downslopping, which drys and warms the air. The western upstate is especially vulnerable to this, and by the time the cold air makes it to us, the moisture has either been dried out or is gone completely. We need a better placed low and the cold needs to already be in place for us. Unfortunately, either of those rarely seem to happen any more, and both together has become almost unobtainable.
 
ajr said:
Out of curiosity (I program and am tempted to do some weather-related hobby projects) what is your model based on? How is it different from other models?
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Like the HRRR and 3km NAM, the MMFS runs on the WRF engine that I have customized with custom physics (bias corrected for the southeast US) and super resolution (usually 1 to 2km grid spacing). I also assimilate a lot of data into the model..generally a lot more than other models.

I have been working on this for a long time but if you just want a basic mid resolution local model, it’s fairly easy to setup the generic WRF on your home computer. Doesn’t require much coding unless you’re looking to make modifications .
 
Wave 1 is quickly becoming a novelty event for many areas even west of the NC state line.
Just not much moisture at all being shown on the back side now.

will be interesting to see if high res models show more backside moisture. Probably not lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
-EPO starting to be hinted at near the end of the GEFS as we approach mid December
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Yes, but be careful what you wish for as you know that the SER could reappear very easily at any point and even become dominant if that ridge gets too far west. Also, the waters in the W PAC are still very warm and we’re in a moderate to strong ala Niña, a combo that the SER typically loves.

I’d be thrilled if the W Canadian +PNA block were to stay put. There’s no better a setup than that to keep the entire SE cold.
 
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Fwiw icon is showing some showers across the Piedmont with the first wave with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Could be some wet snowflakes

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Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah this isn't a good setup for us upstaters, or SC peeps in general. Here's my nonthechnical take. The low isn't where we need it. We need a low tracking much further South along the gulf coast or just inland, then slightly inland and up the seaboard. In the setups like this one the mountains to our North, NW, AND West all block the cold air and dry out the moisture, which is a bad combo for snow. Northern AL, GA, Atl and even panhandle of FL can get it in these setups b/c the wraparound moisture can moe into the cold without having to travel over or through the mountains (it can go around the mountains instead) so they're not subject to downslopping, which drys and warms the air. The western upstate is especially vulnerable to this, and by the time the cold air makes it to us, the moisture has either been dried out or is gone completely. We need a better placed low and the cold needs to already be in place for us. Unfortunately, either of those rarely seem to happen any more, and both together has become almost unobtainable.
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Nailed it!
 
This is precisely why I prefer a split flow pattern with a wave entering Baja. Puts everyone in play
 
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