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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
Yeah at the end of the run it looked like it was headed East as 850s were well below freezing and temps were in the upper 30s/low 40s, we need precip to happen at night to help our chances further East, but for areas further west it looks better
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,948
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This is as far out as it goes, gets you to Tuesday: Heres current surface temps, 24 hr precip and H5
Here’s a few soundings in this band, it was looking like precip was blossoming out around hour 144 as well
Broken024
Member
Bread will be the substitute for TP
I'm liking the trends on the models.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pattern wise, today's long range 12z GFS looks super weenie. Just look at that conveyor belt of southern stream disturbances!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A closed, 588+ decameter ridge in British Columbia in the middle of winter.
Wut
Wut
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A thing of that intensity isn't just going to go away that fast either if it verifies. Just need some cold air and we'll see something.
Icebox
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
FWIW the 12z Euro is a couple degrees cooler than the 00z at H96
BHS1975
Member
Need that over AK to tap into that Siberian air.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I mean just to put into perspective how absolutely insane a ridge like that up there is, 588 decameter 500mb heights are normal for the middle of summer in the SE US.
Euro is some beefy severe weather still.... Along with the UK 
Euro still looks solid for central Tennessee.
Parker
Member
Not much, but some noise for us in central Alabama. Those were some good trends at 12z IMO for us.
A block over W Canada/+PNA tele-connects with a trough over the SE US. Thus the SER is kept away and the SE gets cold. But a block/ridge too far west, like over Alaska, may allow the SER to take over via a -PNA/La Nina pattern and it thus be warm/not allow any Siberian air to get here. Instead the Siberian air concentrates well to our NW.
I'd take a W Canadian block any day if I wanted it to get cold in the SE. You don't need Siberian air for it to get cold in the SE.
Soundings from ENC 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Black hole level 500mb height anomalies
