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Wintry Nov 30-Dec 1 Flurries/Snow Showers

Western slopes are gonna get creamed as it stands
GEFSMA_prec_meansnacc_156.png
 
Hope it continues to dig like ARCC referenced. You have to like today’s trends for those of us further south. Hopefully it can continue over the next few days runs.

I’m starting to think we could at least see some flakes
 
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this looks to be at least part of the reason the precip died out with the second wave.. our upstream "moisture" source is bone dry
1606346113175.png
 
Still lots of disagreements on the GEFS. A lot can happen between now and then.

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ajr said:
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but this looks to be at least part of the reason the precip died out with the second wave.. our upstream "moisture" source is bone dry
View attachment 53824
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We gotta get the gulf involved(unfortunately this is going to bring a bit of warm, moist air with it which can cause temp problems).
 
If you’re in the northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, North Georgia, the Upstate, through North Carolina that second wave is right where you want it to be. Developing a true winter storm in Texas and louisiana and getting destroyed down stream. That is perfect right now. The ULL is getting more and more interesting for SC and NC as well. All it takes is 2 or 3 more shifts further south and west and you’re gonna pull more of us in the snow and drive in more cold air. This has honestly been a great day for model trends.
 
iGRXY said:
If you’re in the northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, North Georgia, the Upstate, through North Carolina that second wave is right where you want it to be. Developing a true winter storm in Texas and louisiana and getting destroyed down stream. That is perfect right now. The ULL is getting more and more interesting for SC and NC as well. All it takes is 2 or 3 more shifts further south and west and you’re gonna pull more of us in the snow and drive in more cold air. This has honestly been a great day for model trends.
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Only problem is that there’s many things that can go wrong with this setup and you need it to be exactly perfect, things that can go wrong is 1. that the cold source (which is the UL trough) decays to fast so we lose our cold air source and stuff phases to our west leaving us vulnerable to WAA 2. you could also run into the UL trough being to far south so it squashes stuff 3. It’s not just threading the needle this setup, it’s threading a viral molecule as you have to get the most perfect track possible and cold air in the right spot, this is probably the reason the EPS/GFS hasn’t been so good with wave 2, I guess things could change tho
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Only problem is that there’s many things that can go wrong with this setup and you need it to be exactly perfect, things that can go wrong is 1. that the cold source (which is the UL trough) decays to fast so we lose our cold air source and stuff phases to our west leaving us vulnerable to WAA 2. you could also run into the UL trough being to far south so it squashes stuff 3. It’s not just threading the needle this setup, it’s threading a viral molecule as you have to get the most perfect track possible and cold air in the right spot, this is probably the reason the EPS/GFS hasn’t been so good with wave 2, I guess things could change tho
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This makes a lot of sense. Honestly it looks like that wave 2 could be a feast or famine scenario in that If there is a storm it would have the potential to be a big one, but there are so many pieces that have to come together the odds are it will get squashed.
 
817998B3-7346-43AF-A974-ED6D67F4E514.jpegSpann posted this on Instagram just a few minutes ago, not great, but it does appear to be from the 18z Euro
 
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