Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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I find it interesting how the hrrr is sniffing that band of precipitation to be a bit dynamic, 20-50 jkg of cape, nice lift in the DGZ (-1 to -3), it’s actually somewhat common with these types of setups to be dynamic
If anyone is wanting to chase snow this early I think the best place may be Gatlinburg.
Just a reminder to fellow flatlanders though. It's best to plan a lot of extra driving time, and good tires, before making the trek out to any mountain community. Or maybe just plan on sticking around until it gets above freezing again.
When in doubt, sleet.
I didn’t even think of sleet, probably what’s gonna happen anyways since colder 850s may lag a bit, aye sleet in November is still a win
441 between Cherokee and Gatlinburg gets shut down more times than not
Yes if I was going after it’s already started I’d take I-40 to the Sevierville exit and take that road in. If coming in from the NC side be careful, the Pigeon River Gorge can get tricky sometimes on I-40, even when it’s 70 and sunny.
Pretty insane to see modeled lake effect rain/snow showers coming off of Kerr & Falls Lake on the HRRR, could provide some additional wintry precipitation perhaps to portions of the Triangle after the front passes.
Wondering where you live, you’re account says Carrollton GA, but It’s in the 60’s there. I remember last year you being somewhere in Ohio Valley?
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I am currently about 50 miles north of Cincinnati in SW Ohio.
Fairly decent increase for the triad on the 18z Hrrr.
12z
18z
There's a decent chance some of that precip on the HRRR, even what's not explicitly output as snow on the model, might actually be falling as wet snow mixed w/ sleet & rain even down to areas like Charlotte for ex. Pretty classic bright banding signature being depicted here...
This also probably means that whatever wintry precipitation that falls won't be just a few flurries or light snow as some more prominent local outlets have suggested, if it snows tomorrow, it will probably come down fast & furious for a little bit while precipitation rates are high then change back over to rain again. I could certainly see a few areas pick up a quick slushy dusting or so before all is said & done.
