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Wintry Nov 12-13 Cold & Light Mix
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
- Start date
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Some observations from tracking many snow events in the north...
ARW = Always really wicked juiced. Not a fan of this suite...
NAM = Pretty accurate sniffing out areas for snow vs. rain. Sometimes too amped with dynamics.
HRRR, RAP, etc... = often over juiced by a bit... usually end up getting about 50-75% of initial output.
ARW = Always really wicked juiced. Not a fan of this suite...
NAM = Pretty accurate sniffing out areas for snow vs. rain. Sometimes too amped with dynamics.
HRRR, RAP, etc... = often over juiced by a bit... usually end up getting about 50-75% of initial output.
" Little or no snow accumulation expected. " MRX mets playing the house odds agains, and being pissy about it to boot.
olhausen
Member
Someone on the other board said the euro looked better for middle and eastern Tennessee. Anyone got maps? I have not renewed my subscription yet as I usually don’t until December. I might change that soon though.
BufordWX
Member
MichaelJ
Member
I enjoy most of the posters here but would you guys PLEASE (looking at you accu35)
put you location in your profile? That gives us some idea of what or where you mean when things like, "looks good for me" etc.. are said in a thread?
put you location in your profile? That gives us some idea of what or where you mean when things like, "looks good for me" etc.. are said in a thread?So this whole event for MS,AL,GA looks to be going from 9 PM tonight to 12 PM Tuesday. So we are in now-casting as much as we are watching short term models. I hate over-running events a slight over performance or under performance of conditions means the world of difference. For example like at the RAP having snow down into the Metro ATL area. Now I'm not calling for this not many models getting winter precipitation all they way down to Metro Atl and temps supposed to in middle of day around 34-35 but a few degrees off can become a nasty mess.
-Real-time watching of High and Arctic air along
-Moisture Feed and just how much precipitation we seem to get going
-Real-time watching of High and Arctic air along
-Moisture Feed and just how much precipitation we seem to get going
Fountainguy97
Member
HRRR and 3KM NAM both really upping totals for me. Exactly what I want to see inside 24 hrs.
latest 3km is 2.5 inches.
latest 3km is 2.5 inches.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
As a forecaster, I wouldn't bet on anything more than 1" in valleys of western NC and between 1-4" for mountain peaks above 4,000 feet. I think odds are too low that we see accumulation outside mountains into central NC so I wouldn't forecast it publicly. Can't rule out flurries for Triad to Triangle, though.
Agree. While I wouldn't completely rule it out either, it looks like the chances of seeing wet flakes or a brief change-over around the Triangle are very low. Maybe 5%.
Yep. The only reason I'd even consider the possibility this time is how anomalous the incoming air mass is.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Unfortunately, the "almost" part is there because it do works out sometimes and it's a possibility that we cannot dismiss entirely. Gotta love anafront events... /sarcasm
While I am happy some folks on here will see their first flakes of the year on here, I just think it's cool that we are getting such a shot of cold air this early in the season. Temps will literally fall all day here in the Midlands of SC tomorrow. You don't see things like that often, especially in November. If you have an PWS, tonight into tomorrow will be a fun with checking out obs.
WXinCanton
Member
hoping to scratch this season off the list early. I moved to Georgia in 89 and have seen at least one flake every winter I've lived here.
HRRR detecting bright banding already with that band of precipitation with a isothermal sounding, could see a heavy burst of wet snow if there’s that much lift/- omega inside the DGZ 
While its probably not as good as mesoscale models now, it’s worth noting how the gefs continues to bump up the mean, almost every ensemble member agrees on snow making it past the mountains 
Brent
Member
just dropped from 65 to 45 here in a flash and 50 mph gusts being reported
I'll make sure to enjoy my 37 and rain. In all seriousness, this has been an interesting one to track, and I'm rooting for y'all elsewhere
Tim!
I find it interesting how the hrrr is sniffing that band of precipitation to be a bit dynamic, 20-50 jkg of cape, nice lift in the DGZ (-1 to -3), it’s actually somewhat common with these types of setups to be dynamic
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If anyone is wanting to chase snow this early I think the best place may be Gatlinburg.
Just a reminder to fellow flatlanders though. It's best to plan a lot of extra driving time, and good tires, before making the trek out to any mountain community. Or maybe just plan on sticking around until it gets above freezing again.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
When in doubt, sleet.
I didn’t even think of sleet, probably what’s gonna happen anyways since colder 850s may lag a bit, aye sleet in November is still a win
441 between Cherokee and Gatlinburg gets shut down more times than not
Temp has dropped from 49 to 46. Im growing impatient waiting on the cold/snow to arrive.
Hope it rains ?
You are cruel !
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Yes if I was going after it’s already started I’d take I-40 to the Sevierville exit and take that road in. If coming in from the NC side be careful, the Pigeon River Gorge can get tricky sometimes on I-40, even when it’s 70 and sunny.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pretty insane to see modeled lake effect rain/snow showers coming off of Kerr & Falls Lake on the HRRR, could provide some additional wintry precipitation perhaps to portions of the Triangle after the front passes.
The northern burbs of Detroit look like they are getting crushed right now.
Temp has dropped from 46 to 41 in last 20 min. Light rain.
Down to 39 at 2pm.
Wondering where you live, you’re account says Carrollton GA, but It’s in the 60’s there. I remember last year you being somewhere in Ohio Valley?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I am currently about 50 miles north of Cincinnati in SW Ohio.
Down to 37. Still raining.
Fairly decent increase for the triad on the 18z Hrrr.
12z
18z
12z
18z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Fairly decent increase for the triad on the 18z Hrrr.
12z
18z
There's a decent chance some of that precip on the HRRR, even what's not explicitly output as snow on the model, might actually be falling as wet snow mixed w/ sleet & rain even down to areas like Charlotte for ex. Pretty classic bright banding signature being depicted here...
This also probably means that whatever wintry precipitation that falls won't be just a few flurries or light snow as some more prominent local outlets have suggested, if it snows tomorrow, it will probably come down fast & furious for a little bit while precipitation rates are high then change back over to rain again. I could certainly see a few areas pick up a quick slushy dusting or so before all is said & done.
