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Naughty November

Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon looked liked it would head for glory if it went passed hour 180, looks like the trough would make it here first then the southern stream wave second View attachment 52851
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I still stand by my idea from days ago that w/ a strong subtropical jet, we could have a fighting chance to see something out of this if the northern stream plays ball
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon looked liked it would head for glory if it went passed hour 180, looks like the trough would make it here first then the southern stream wave second View attachment 52851
Click to expand...

Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

1606017146500.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

View attachment 52853
Click to expand...
Nice precip shield! Truly getting the December 2018 vibes on this run.
E6444BC5-F057-4CD9-B5AA-E05587E72F29.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow, the subtropical jet is absolutely raging on the ICON. Very rarely see a 125 kt jet streak over northern Mexico. We definitely have some of the large-scale ingredients in place to see a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone traverse across the south, we just have to get some cooperation from the northern branch of the jet to make it happen

View attachment 52853
Click to expand...

Here's the GEFS as a point of comparison. Hostile takeover by the subtropical jet

1606018418415.png
 
I think that some of the things I’ve observed in the ICON vs the GFS, is #1 The phasing of the two s/w’s in red. If that happens, then the trough can move into the NE. #2 Obviously, we need the main trough more neutrally tilted rather than positive so it doesn’t waste our moisture.
3B0FAE9F-0E04-40B9-92AF-D2472DA34E78.jpeg
 
Ollie Williams said:
I think that some of the things I’ve observed in the ICON vs the GFS, is #1 The phasing of the two s/w’s in red. If that happens, then the trough can move into the NE. #2 Obviously, we need the main trough more neutrally tilted rather than positive so it doesn’t waste our moisture.
View attachment 52857
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No weenie stuff, but I could see the gfs progressive bias Being a issue here
 
GFS with some crazy heights into Saskatchewan near the end of the run. Yikes.

Final thoughts on 00z: toss
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol HM just mentioned to me that he thinks there's a possibility we snow before the mid-atlantic w/ this look ?

yes pls
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The best gift anybody can ask for! That’s always fun to see snow, while they wishcast/bittercast!
 
Ollie Williams said:
What happens if GSP gets a deeper snowpack than Dubuque?
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Never thought about that!? But if brutal cold overwhelms the pattern, like typical Ninas, they could easily get anowcover and I just sit under blue skies and highs in the single digits! Sounds fun
 
snod.us_se.png
Its a start
 
Brent said:
I remember when today had high pops here... now its down to 30% and the hi-res models look blah

very hard for me to believe next weeks forecast when they cant predict today :p
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How long has it been since you had rain? It feels like it has been a while.
 
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