• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Naughty November

IMO, the only way we get snow out of this setup is if we trend stronger w/ the ridge over western Canada. Otherwise, troughs will phase, and we see severe. The ICON has that look, the CMC did but lost it, again, uphill battle.

Yeah the problem if we get severe, is that it would
Likely be pretty high end due to a big STJ feeding into it (April’s setups for example l)
 
Gefs actually looks a bit better interestingly
There were a couple of members that got on board, but not enough to really make a point. However, what does encourage me is the shift from heights from the NE to the SE/MA, which signals more separation. Ideally, we need it to be near AL, GA.
06z
067z.png
12z
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-z500_anom-6824000.png
 
How is it that we get a near strong La Niña, yet we get a classic El Niño pattern?
Same way we get a Nina pattern in a Nino! It's time for us to realize we don't have a clue what the weather will do. Even the greatest minds on the planet can't predict it. That's not a knock on them just how it is. I always go warm because it has won out 90% of the time in the recent past and I'm just playing the odds that it will continue, not because I really have any clue.
 
Womp
gfs_T2m_seus_21.png
 
Still think 20% sleet-rain mix chance mostly in west for the mtns Monday morning. 10% chance in blue just east of the there if heavier returns develop before 9am. Temps above freezing no issues...just some dry air could help give first taste of winter precip for a few. 5FB7D9A9-034B-460E-A89A-D43FE62F769C.jpeg
 
Extremely favorable double barrel, coupled jet structure being depicted here by day 9-10 on the GEFS. Rapid cyclogenesis would be heavily favored off the Carolina coast here.

View attachment 52848
I'm curious what your overall thoughts are on this setup. Looking at all the models, very little operational/ensemble runs have anything snowy. Taking verbatim, would you say that there's more to it? Just asking because It's frustrating to see nice synoptic, but terrible means.
 
I'm curious what your overall thoughts are on this setup. Looking at all the models, very little operational/ensemble runs have anything snowy. Taking verbatim, would you say that there's more to it? Just asking because It's frustrating to see nice synoptic, but terrible means.

The overall pattern seems to support an inland or lakes cutter w/ the potential for secondary cyclogenesis along the trailing frontal boundary near the Atlantic coast. There's so much non-linearity that gets realized in a setup like it contributes to unusually large spread >>> ensemble means will inherently look like crap beyond day 5-7.


The GEFS's progressive bias is rearing its ugly head again, notice the MSLPa trend near the Carolina & SE US coast

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_eus_fh234_trend.gif
 
The overall pattern seems to support an inland or lakes cutter w/ the potential for secondary cyclogenesis along the trailing frontal boundary near the Atlantic coast. There's so much non-linearity that gets realized in a setup like it contributes to unusually large spread >>> ensemble means will inherently look like crap beyond day 5-7.


The GEFS's progressive bias is rearing its ugly head again, notice the MSLPa trend near the Carolina & SE US coast

View attachment 52849
So do you think we may start to see something on the ensembles in the next 2-4 days?
 
So do you think we may start to see something on the ensembles in the next 2-4 days?

Yeah, we'll start to at least see hints of it in the next couple days if anything of significance were to emerge. I'm leaning yes atm, whether that's wintry precip or not remains to be seen but won't take much to see a big shot of cold air here
 
Back
Top