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Naughty November

SD said:
Same, got down to 29 at some point. Another monster frost this morning
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Same here, 3 mornings of temps in the 20's.....only thing I hate, I still have a ton of leaves in the yard and I'm sure the grass in areas was insulated well dang it.
 
metwannabe said:
Same here, 3 mornings of temps in the 20's.....only thing I hate, I still have a ton of leaves in the yard and I'm sure the grass in areas was insulated well dang it.
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I don't think we do it tonight but if we can keep dews from increasing too much we could have 4 straight sub freezing nights
 
Cold mornings if we can continue to lock in dry air despite the warm up this weekend the chances of sleet to rain will increase late month into December. In the western areas. With right timing.
 
Kinda see this in the modeling around 6z Monday till 12z Monday with evaporative cooling. I would say 20% chance of sleet mix for the mtns and foothills (if cmc moisture is right). GFS is usually awful on temps and this would be upper 30s sleet/rain and 1-3 hour window.
 
Chazwin said:
I don’t know that it will be much of a torch at least when compared to average highs considering that it looks like we’ll have plenty of clouds and a chance of rain.
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In my cold weenie head, this is torch
gfs_T2m_seus_26.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
In my cold weenie head, this is torch
gfs_T2m_seus_26.png
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Keep in mind for most areas outside the mountains average highs are still in the low to mid 60s this time of the year. So while these might be a few degrees above that, it’s not anything unusual for last week of November
 
Chazwin said:
Keep in mind for most areas outside the mountains average highs are still in the low to mid 60s this time of the year. So while these might be a few degrees above that, it’s not anything unusual for last week of November
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Speak for yourself, 70 would be +10 here
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Just need the next few frames to move this 1000 miles East and keep it there for a few days... or weeks... then bring in the SJ...hmmmm☃
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You're definitely getting your wish regarding the subtropical jet, it keeps cranking on the EPS thru day 10. Carolinas & mid-Atlantic are in the left exit region, favors deep mid-latitude cyclones

1605907471188.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
An active subtropical jet + favorable longwave pattern/+PNA is showing up on both the GEFS & EPS just beyond day 10. I'll take my chances every single day of the week w/ a pattern like that
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Yeah, the EPS was very nice looking in regards to moisture, cold air would be the issue. I'd get excited if we could get that ridge about 500 miles north, then we'd be calling early December 2018 an analog.
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-7061600.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-7061600.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
Yeah, the EPS was very nice looking in regards to moisture, cold air would be the issue. I'd get excited if we could get that ridge about 500 miles north, then we'd be calling early December 2018 an analog.
View attachment 52716View attachment 52717
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Yeah, no doubt if this was the heart of winter, we'd be at least 3-4F+ degrees cooler in the means and certainly have a real good chance. Pattern looks just favorable enough imo where I think we may have a legitimate shot down the line.

We'll have to see what emerges in due time and it may end up looking cooler than that if this pattern comes to fruition because those long range ensemble means often damp out the true anomalies due to dispersion &/or if we happen to get a particularly strong mid-latitude cyclone that creates its own cold air and is able to draw more cP air out of Canada.
 
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