Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's what it looks like on the GEFS
Hinting at something big just beyond day 10 in the favorable left exit region of the subtropical jet.
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Naughty November
- Thread starter LickWx
- Start date
Here's what it looks like on the GEFS
Hinting at something big just beyond day 10 in the favorable left exit region of the subtropical jet.
That look has big dog potential given it’s probably gonna be juiced if it isn’t squished by a vortex
If we can get that trough to slide over top, get it to amplify to our N near us and eject out the southern wave ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah it definitely does. Here's a few early December big dogs I was able to dig up on that apparently had similar longwave patterns.
December 2-3 1896
December 4-5 1907
December 4 2000
Composite mean 500mb anomaly from the above 3 storms
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You can get active subtropical jets in a multitude of ways without El Nino, a Kelvin or MJO wave, +PMM (as we'll see this coming week), and equatorward breaking rossby wave on the dynamic tropopause in the right place and orientation can deposit a significant amount of westerly momentum onto the subtropical jet.
I could be wrong but, wouldn't there be a caveat since there's a ridge south of Greenland rather than a trough that would pump cold air?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Dec 2 2002, FTW
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the trough there is a key distinction and something we may need to see as this moves forward in time. A trough south of Greenland pushes the North Atlantic storm track southward, delivers a cold high to our north over New England and southeastern Canada and helps slow the background flow just enough for the wave in the southern stream to amplify and tilt just in the nick of time to produce here. We can certainly do without the trough there but it would help no doubt imo
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I think it was Dec 4-5, 2002. Raleigh had their most freezing rain from a single storm since 1948.
Such an exciting advisory map tonight across the US:
I remember that storm well. I was living in Concord and after about a 1/2 inch of sleet/snow it switched over to 18 hours of freezing rain with the temperature hovering between 27-29. The ice accrued to just under an inch which was the most I’ve personally experienced. Power was out for a longer time after that than with Hugo
olhausen
Member
Trust me nashville is a huge heat island but it’s much further north then Atlanta. I’m 40 minutes north of Nashville and have seen many times driving from Nashville to White House at night temp drops of 10 degrees. Look at the gfs on weather bell using the 2m temps and you can literally see a bubble of warm air surrounding Nashville, especially at night when cooler temps are ongoing
NCSNOW
Member
It was the worst ice storm in history over this way . Over an inch of freezing rain ice acruel. Brutal
phaser incoming 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
swing and miss, need slower southern wave/faster trough to swing in from the NW into SE Canada but pattern is definitely there 
00z GFS wants to go for some more Max LO records ?
Ayo wtf 
Just goes to show you the lack of confidence there is in the 10 day period.
CMC and ICON are aligned, and the GFS and Euro are in another alignment camp.
CMC and ICON are aligned, and the GFS and Euro are in another alignment camp.
Doubt it?
I’m of the opinion that something is cooking south of the Mason-Dixon Line first week in December..keeps looking favorable in the extended
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gawxnative
Member
Well looks like trends are still indication possible Severe for SE Tues through Wednesday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Super negatively tilted, triple phaser. If we still only get cold rain out of something like that, I give up
I’ve seen worse. Couple players showing up 
smast16
Member
Talk about the Polar Plunge...
I wanna bet when this pattern ends off, the southeast ridge goes brrr unless a active STJ can keep us cool/cloudy
Before then tho... mark it dec 8-10 is our time again
Talk about close 
Going back to last night’s Canadian, vs models vs the December storm 2018. Pretty similar.
Yeah I’m rooting for a miller B like that, need SE Canada trough and slow SW but one that ejects
Sooooo (other than -EPO) can it please happen 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Yeah, but they are Bill Buckner and Bob Horner
Gfs is very meh, northern stream energy in Canada is just fast and flimsy so that 2nd one is probably gonna pick it up, which probably wouldn’t work for us
Meh
That’s a hardcore severe weather/tornado outbreak look
Table setter
Birdman Deluxe
IMO, the only way we get snow out of this setup is if we trend stronger w/ the ridge over western Canada. Otherwise, troughs will phase, and we see severe. The ICON has that look, the CMC did but lost it, again, uphill battle.