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Naughty November

Honestly hoping we can limit any severe weather for the time being. With a La Niña in play Spring will have its fair share of storms.

What made me really not like that euro run063D1E1A-B6BD-4BE7-B88F-7B3F8B9A40C5.jpegD67C7C50-5007-491F-9E05-3CA87F06A313.jpeg
Thanks goodness it’s the D10 euro and it’s been flopping harder than harden the last few days, so not worried about that look rn
 
Strongly suspect that the intense subtropical jet we're going to see in the extended is closely linked to the +PMM forcing moist convection anomalies in the off-equatorial central Pacific. Notice the excess precipitation southwest of Hawaii is co-located w/ the right entrance region of the subtropical jet.

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Copied this off Dacula site as i was thumbing around looking for the EPO index/forecast: This shows / illustartes how crucial it is imo to look for a -EPO or +PNA. These are way more beneficial TC's for us in the SE than the AO or NAO. Not that those don't help.

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34 here with 31 at nearby stations. At this pt I’m convinced we report too high for lows
 
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34 here with 31 at nearby stations. At this pt I’m convinced we report too high for lows
There's always places that run colder during clear/calm nights. I'm not one of them. Around the RDU area, Sanford can come in with the lowest temps. Things like geography (situated in a lower elevated area surrounded by higher areas) and soil types (sandy compared to clay) seem to be key.
 
GFS keeps most wedge areas cloudy basically from Tuesday through Friday. Sign me up
 
That CAD is trending colder on the GFS, starting to get into closer territory for ice
Ice is already there given how bad the GFS is on 2m temps near the surface if any dry air exists. Sleet to cold rain. Unless we get a new cold source of air to our north it could be freezing rain onset Wilkes county northward.
 
CMC much colder than euro. Just need New England to get blasted to create a stronger CAD in December. I see several 1-3 snow storms there but really need a coastal to burry them. Euro is just warm and severe.
 
CMC much colder than euro. Just need New England to get blasted to create a stronger CAD in December. I see several 1-3 snow storms there but really need a coastal to burry them. Euro is just warm and severe.
Is CAD the only way your area gets winter weather ? Surely there are other ways other than CAD.
 
Is CAD the only way your area gets winter weather ? Surely there are other ways other than CAD.
CAD will somehow manifest it’s way into the picture due to the mountains being where they are. It’s one variable we know being east of the mtns. I say 90% have some type of CAD variant.
 
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