That CAD is trending colder on the GFS, starting to get into closer territory for ice 
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Naughty November
- Thread starter LickWx
- Start date
BufordWX
Member
Even in OKC 1931-32 is tied for the least snowiest winter in recorded history with only a trace of snow. Only twice has that happened. The other was 1934-35.
Brent
Member
Interestingly the winter of 16-17 was warmer here by almost 2 degrees and 15-16 is just .1 behind on averages
??
good trends..
ICON was close... 
Sweet, our first true 'cold' rain storm with temps in the mid 40s.. 
Sweet, our first true 'cold' rain storm with temps in the mid 40s..
Euro says hold on, it would rather have wedges
Is that close to severe look on Euro? (newbie..)
Yes, for areas further west in the SE (moisture return to weak in the eastern part of the SE)
BufordWX
Member
Euro has another severe set up at day 10. Lol
Really looks to me like the PV is trying to lock up.. oh well. 
BufordWX
Member
Honestly hoping we can limit any severe weather for the time being. With a La Niña in play Spring will have its fair share of storms.
What made me really not like that euro run
Thanks goodness it’s the D10 euro and it’s been flopping harder than harden the last few days, so not worried about that look rn
Interesting, that STJ looks amped up, I could see that being problematic with severe weather 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Strongly suspect that the intense subtropical jet we're going to see in the extended is closely linked to the +PMM forcing moist convection anomalies in the off-equatorial central Pacific. Notice the excess precipitation southwest of Hawaii is co-located w/ the right entrance region of the subtropical jet.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The big eastern US ridge that was forecast late this weekend has been getting quite a beatdown in more recent model runs.
tennessee storm
Member
Still long ways. To go unfortunately
NCSNOW
Member
Copied this off Dacula site as i was thumbing around looking for the EPO index/forecast: This shows / illustartes how crucial it is imo to look for a -EPO or +PNA. These are way more beneficial TC's for us in the SE than the AO or NAO. Not that those don't help.
LickWx
Member
RDU just hit 32 making today the first official freeze !
28.8
30 degrees at the house. I've hit 32 twice before, but this is the first sub freezing temp.
34 here with 31 at nearby stations. At this pt I’m convinced we report too high for lows
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's honestly hard to hate this look. Feels a lot like an El Nino
I’ll still be disappointed when this melts into a 68 and sunny
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah. Except last two El Niño’s. Sucked ... just saying
There's always places that run colder during clear/calm nights. I'm not one of them. Around the RDU area, Sanford can come in with the lowest temps. Things like geography (situated in a lower elevated area surrounded by higher areas) and soil types (sandy compared to clay) seem to be key.
Upon further investigation, patchy frost and most roofs are white. Station reads 37/22
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
24 with a stiff breeze out of the north here this morning.
GFS keeps most wedge areas cloudy basically from Tuesday through Friday. Sign me up
30.8, only dropped below freezing for about 90 minutes right around sunrise. DP was at 28.3. First freezing temp of the season.
Ice is already there given how bad the GFS is on 2m temps near the surface if any dry air exists. Sleet to cold rain. Unless we get a new cold source of air to our north it could be freezing rain onset Wilkes county northward.
CMC much colder than euro. Just need New England to get blasted to create a stronger CAD in December. I see several 1-3 snow storms there but really need a coastal to burry them. Euro is just warm and severe.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Is CAD the only way your area gets winter weather ? Surely there are other ways other than CAD.
CAD will somehow manifest it’s way into the picture due to the mountains being where they are. It’s one variable we know being east of the mtns. I say 90% have some type of CAD variant.
When will this turn into a ridge again ? Asking for a friend 
whatalife
Moderator
