Naughty November

[Myfrotho704_]

This pattern is literally so bad, can’t get worse than this, I’m starting to think we’re gonna get a repeat of 2011-12 type thing, pattern looks purely La Niña/+QBO dominated with a strong PV, cold trapped in the pacific NW/Alaska, and a southeast ridge/ridge east of the Rockies

 

[LickWx]

This pattern is literally so bad, can get worse than this, I’m starting to think we’re gonna get a repeat of 2011-12 type thing, pattern looks purely La Niña/+QBO dominated with a strong PV, cold trapped in the pacific NW/Alaska, and a southeast ridge/ridge east of the Rockies View attachment 51921

I hope so, it will get cold and nasty in the spring anyways lol.

 

[wxdaniel]

This pattern is literally so bad, can get worse than this, I’m starting to think we’re gonna get a repeat of 2011-12 type thing, pattern looks purely La Niña/+QBO dominated with a strong PV, cold trapped in the pacific NW/Alaska, and a southeast ridge/ridge east of the Rockies View attachment 51921

I liked this (not because I like what is going to happen), but I agree with you


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[Mr. Golf]

This pattern is literally so bad, can’t get worse than this, I’m starting to think we’re gonna get a repeat of 2011-12 type thing, pattern looks purely La Niña/+QBO dominated with a strong PV, cold trapped in the pacific NW/Alaska, and a southeast ridge/ridge east of the Rockies View attachment 51921

Actually 2011-12 had a -qbo FWIW. And cooler along west coast and Alaska.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Actually 2011-12 had a -qbo FWIW. And cooler along west coast and Alaska.

I know I’m just saying temperature anomalies/H5 Look similar to that year (November is already looking to match it, +QBO is bad because it leads to a stronger PV, maybe it can start the trend of going From positive downward which is not a bad one

 

[Mr. Golf]

Last year's qbo was favorable, but we saw what happened with the PV also?

 

[ATLwxfan]

What about the sloshing bathtub theory?


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[SETNwx]

In Nov 2010 there was a week of 70s for highs in the middle of the month but every night the lows dipped into the 30s. It's almost like Chattanooga has forgot how to cool overnight. I guess that's just a testament to the strength of the SE Ridge, and general cloudiness.

 

[J.C.]

What about the sloshing bathtub theory?


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The bathtub has been out of water for quite a while.

 

[cd2play]

In Nov 2010 there was a week of 70s for highs in the middle of the month but every night the lows dipped into the 30s. It's almost like Chattanooga has forgot how to cool overnight. I guess that's just a testament to the strength of the SE Ridge, and general cloudiness.

I actually remember in Nashville October 2010, we had highs in the upper 80s for a couple of days, and lows in the upper 40s! 2010 was one of the best Autumns.

 

[cd2play]

What about the sloshing bathtub theory?


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The tub is clogged.

 

[cd2play]

I hope so, it will get cold and nasty in the new winter (March and April) anyways lol.

Fixed

 

[cd2play]

This pattern is literally so bad, can’t get worse than this, I’m starting to think we’re gonna get a repeat of 2011-12 type thing, pattern looks purely La Niña/+QBO dominated with a strong PV, cold trapped in the pacific NW/Alaska, and a southeast ridge/ridge east of the Rockies View attachment 51921

Our goose is cooked

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HrrrV4/nam suggest some isolated severe storms in NC/VA/SC on Wed, nice soundings for some convection with some stronger downdrafts and hodos supportive of mini supercell structures, overall lapse rates are very poor and will likely keep it marginal at best

 

[jackendrickwx]

The 11/10/75 max low record of 61F appears to be all but broken at this point. 64F for a morning low, and GSP is calling for a low of 67F the next two nights, which would both shatter records

 

[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

The 11/10/75 max low record of 61F appears to be all but broken at this point. 64F for a morning low, and GSP is calling for a low of 67F the next two nights, which would both shatter records

Bamwx told us it'll be the warmest cold season ever!!

 

[NoSnowATL]

Bamwx told us it'll be the warmest cold season ever!!

If you look at all the signals it’s kind a hard not to agree at this point.

 

[SD]

Happy thanksgiving

 

[SD]

Watch the pattern across the CONUS next week on the models in the now D7-10 period. Can easily transition into a warm one for us, on the flip side any westward/deeper adjustment to the trough off of the west coast and we are chilly.

 

[cyclogent]

So we did just clip the old record:

Yep, and in doing so we also broke the record for latest date with a high temp of 82 or warmer. (previously, latest date was 11/8 set in 2005)