Naughty November

[Webberweather53]

We've definitely seen favorable trends for our first freeze of the season by the middle of this coming week




EPS is explicitly forecasting one for most of central and eastern NC






The coldest members bring freezing temps down to the I-20 corridor, including the midlands of SC. Certainly can't be ruled out

 

[olhausen]

If Dec 2018 is unlocking 3 95 overall players on madden, Dec 1886 is like having every player on your team with a 100 rating and Belicheck is the coach

1886-87 fwiw is a La Nina too

26" in Greenville, SC & 18"+ in Atlanta. How lol

View attachment 52294

Talk about a board wide event!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What a sunset this evening

 

[SETNwx]

One of the rare times the airport temp is colder than most of the rest of the metro.. 46 at the airport, 49 in Red Bank, 51 Downtown.

 

[J.C.]

One of the rare times the airport temp is colder than most of the rest of the metro.. 46 at the airport, 49 in Red Bank, 51 Downtown.

Is it in a valley?

 

[SETNwx]

Is it in a valley?

Yeah, but I've observed this station since 1989.. it doesn't radiationally cool like other places.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Is this The phase where we say toss it it’s a bad run ?

 

[SETNwx]

You can see the cold slow descend from Canada even though the teleconnections aren't too pretty. I call this look Zonal Chili:

 

[SETNwx]

GOA low ruins everything:

 

[Webberweather53]

Is this The phase where we say toss it it’s a bad run ? View attachment 52363

Lol the crazy uncle getting crazy yet again

 

[SETNwx]

Tell me this is not weird... CHA hourly report. The dewpoint dropped 5 degrees and the air temp rose 3. No change in wind:

15	23:53​	NW 7	10.00	Fair​	CLR	47	31			54%	44	NA	30.23	1023.4
15	22:53​	NW 7	10.00	Fair​	CLR	47	31			54%	44	NA	30.21	1023.0
15	21:53​	NW 5	10.00	Fair​	CLR	49	30			48%	47	NA	30.19	1022.2
15	20:53​	NW 5	10.00	Fair​	CLR	46	35			66%	44	NA	30.17	1021.5

 

[J.C.]

Tell me this is not weird... CHA hourly report. The dewpoint dropped 5 degrees and the air temp rose 3. No change in wind:

15	23:53​	NW 7	10.00	Fair​	CLR	47	31			54%	44	NA	30.23	1023.4
15	22:53​	NW 7	10.00	Fair​	CLR	47	31			54%	44	NA	30.21	1023.0
15	21:53​	NW 5	10.00	Fair​	CLR	49	30			48%	47	NA	30.19	1022.2
15	20:53​	NW 5	10.00	Fair​	CLR	46	35			66%	44	NA	30.17	1021.5

it’s been doing the same thing here. I’ve been at 48-49 for the past few hours.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might get interesting ?

 

[SETNwx]

Mo' ridging in the West, little by little.. let them have their beast of a Fall, if The East can reel in a 6 week dream Winter:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Damn it it’s moisture starved since the wave dies, that’s the closest run to a winter storm I’ve seen so far for this time frame

 

[Webberweather53]

Damn it it’s moisture starved since the wave dies, that’s the closest run to a winter storm I’ve seen so far for this time frame View attachment 52372View attachment 52373View attachment 52374

But hey at least the pattern is there, can't ask for a whole lot more atm!

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty easy to see there's a ton of uncertainty in the 0z EPS here, forecasting near-normal height anomalies across the board in the CONUS = lots of inter-member spread.

 

[Webberweather53]

Maybe we'll get lucky here




GEFS seems to support this idea

 

[Webberweather53]

Smfh

 

[jackendrickwx]

41 here this morning, neighboring station reports 37

 

[tennessee storm]

Smfh

View attachment 52378

Yeah. Unreal.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Euro/GFS in good agreement on weekend warmup and Monday fropa. Enjoy the nice weather everyone!

 

[SimeonNC]

Last time I checked the station before sunrise it was at 40.1 , it might have gotten lower or not.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

All the way down to 34.1 IMBY this am; noice!

 

[gawxnative]

Euro/GFS in good agreement on weekend warmup and Monday fropa. Enjoy the nice weather everyone!

And SPC progs very low if any chance of Severe.. So looking pretty good so far

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Crap

 

[BufordWX]

@Sleet City USA
GFS with a wedge watch for next Tuesday! Although it is pretty far out still.

 

[tennessee storm]

And SPC progs very low if any chance of Severe.. So looking pretty good so far

If euro is believed last nite run day ten that trough coming down is negative titled . That’s going be watched for severe . Be post turkey day. Ways out course

 

[FallsLake]

Nice look to the indices in the LR:
PNA - Looks to go positive
NAO - Looks to go negative
AO - Looks to go negative.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections

 

[tennessee storm]

Nice look to the indices in the LR:
PNA - Looks to go positive
NAO - Looks to go negative
AO - Looks to go negative.

CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections

Be a temporary window for that in mid December to mid January ... not seeing a prolong negative nao nor ao. But we can take what we get in that 30 day frame I mentioned

 

[Myfrotho704_]

time for king euro to save us ! Not

 

[Webberweather53]

Crap View attachment 52381

The CAD signal hasn’t gone away yet remarkably

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The CAD signal hasn’t gone away yet remarkably
View attachment 52385

Also Gefs is actually been increasing CAD/strength of the parent high the last few runs, trough in SE Canada ticking S a bit each run

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Also Gefs is actually been increasing CAD/strength of the parent high the last few runs, trough in SE Canada ticking S a bit each run View attachment 52386View attachment 52387

If this were all to play out absolutely perfectly for winter wx it would be more of a freezing rain/sleet event right?

 

[NCSNOW]

Need a -EPO this year. Beleive 2013 was a la Nina and the EPO went/stayed negative and turned it in to a decent winter,. Seems like we had several icy events Feb into march that year if My memory is correct. The most important signal for us imo is the EPO this year considering the backdrop pattern we have.

 

[tennessee storm]

Need a -EPO this year. Beleive 2013 was a la Nina and the EPO went/stayed negative and turned it in to a decent winter,. Seems like we had several icy events Feb into march that year if My memory is correct. The most important signal for us imo is the EPO this year considering the backdrop pattern we have.

Agree. Negative epo can trump a strong. Niña

 

[smast16]

Haven't been on the Board since Friday, and I just got caught up. From that run on Friday i said to myself "I can't wait to see how this implodes..."

Wasn't disappointed. ? ?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Sad. WPC had a Moderate Risk out for Wilkes north. These type of outlooks rarely get posted on social media unless it’s for severe weather. And it doesn’t help when local news stations issue their own risk/color/level. It’s confusing.

 

[Webberweather53]

This is really not a trend you wanna see on the Euro if you were like me and hoping the pattern would break in our favor to deliver some cold air in late November. Weaker, poleward, more transient cyclonic wave break in the N Pacific storm track >>> shorter-lived -EPO and less time for the TPV over the Baffin Bay to slide southward >>> we remain warm.

Sigh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I have been burned