Cuban icicle crisis. Congrats, Phil!
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Naughty November
- Thread starter LickWx
- Start date
I think that the GEFS weekly control is ideally what I hope to happen. Warm to favorable pattern around the 10th of December. About the exact opposite of what happens in recent years.
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Trend back to glory, a 50 degree CAD 
Yeah, pass. R/S line already west. Gets wester from there.
Uhhhh I count this as #WedgeWatch
LickWx
Member
Looks very ripe to trend warmer ! NW TREND !Uhhhh I count this as #WedgeWatch
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Strongly suspect a lot of this has to do w/ how the GEFS handles the MJO in the extended range. It's usually too fast, progressive, and strong in the West-Central Pacific but the EPS however likes to hold it too long over the eastern hemisphere. A compromise between the two offers some hope no doubt.
The next pattern I’m flopping for 
If there’s one positive we can take out these maps, it’s that SE Canada snow, really helps build the foundation to a good CAD event 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GFS ensemble definitely still likes the idea of a CAD event prior to Thanksgiving/ the one we've been talking about for several days now.
Looks like a chilly rain w/ temps in the 40s & 50s in NC
Looks like a chilly rain w/ temps in the 40s & 50s in NC
NCSNOW
Member
Ha no kidding the first thing I thought when I took the dog out was well got a dusting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GEFS as @Myfrotho704_ mentioned earlier trending favorably for pre-Thanksgiving CAD and a cold rain in NC. I can live with that in late November.
Gotta admit though, a 1028 high over Maine on an ensemble mean at 180 hr is pretty impressive
Gotta admit though, a 1028 high over Maine on an ensemble mean at 180 hr is pretty impressive
SimeonNC
Member
This supports my idea of December being best window for wintry this year. Hopefully I'm not wrong.
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SimeonNC
Member
Honestly all the indices seem to be trending in a positive direction in the long term, as I said unless it all goes poof I see no reason to be pessimistic about the next 4-6 weeks.
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Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
I’ll be in Gatlinburg the second week in December. Fingers crossed for an apps rubber ??
?? 
Move the ridge west and Alaskan low over Aleutians and I’m happy 
So you have chosen death
KMA : yes
KMA : yes
Hopefully what we’re seeing @ 500mb in the Arctic out in fantasy land isn’t an indicator to how our winter is going to turn out.. 
KiNg EuRo 
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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What’s the pink in Iowa? Asking for a friend!?
EPS showing it a little to 
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Northern US and midwest are probably going to be blowtorch warm as tropical forcing shifts into the Maritime Continent. If we had an active subtropical jet & were in an El Nino, I'd feel better about our chances to stay seasonable to even below average as we head into early December. Hopefully, we can sneak a random storm in after Thanksgiving when this ridge axis is forecast to be closer to the Rockies.
Fountainguy97
Member
Been a brutal day in the upper 40s and winds gusting to 25.
Sitting at 47/21 clear sky. Setting up for a steep drop into the low 20s!
Sitting at 47/21 clear sky. Setting up for a steep drop into the low 20s!
Grrrr, what a well placed wave with no source of cold nearby, sigh 
NoSnowATL
Member
Seems familiar.......
The trend to zonal tho 
cd2play
Member
Every time we get a well place system, there is either no cold air to work with or the system is moisture starved, thus no precip.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 18z GFS is a CAD machine, another one shows up the weekend after Thanksgiving on the edge of fantasy land. Don't have the cold air (yet) for icing, but it will at least feel like winter
Give
Mr. Golf
Member
Eric, in reality, what is it going to take to get the goa low to retrograde or move to another area? Obviously where it is isnt good
Didn’t we fight that battle for a good chunk of last winter?
36/29... maybe tonight I finally break the freeze barrier
First freeze of the season scheduled for tomorrow
Only twice since 1879 has Chattanooga not officially recorded a freeze in Nov.. 1978 & 1931(No freezes in Oct of those years either). We got a shot at being the third time in 2020.
cd2play
Member
FWIW: Nov 1978 was followed by a warm December, but a blockbuster Jan & Feb. Nov 1931 was followed by... you don't want to know
Dewpoint Dan
Member
I'm not sure about Chatt but i know some cities had their all time warmest winter in 1931-32.
Yeah I noticed it was pretty cold in Jan/Feb 1979, with one decent snow (6-7 inches) in Feb. Enso was neutral in 78-79... not sure about 31-32..
cd2play
Member
Yep. That winter was MUCH warmer than even our recent torch winters.