Naughty November

[jackendrickwx]

Watch the pattern across the CONUS next week on the models in the now D7-10 period. Can easily transition into a warm one for us, on the flip side any westward/deeper adjustment to the trough off of the west coast and we are chilly.

Yeah I’ve been watching the GFS, it’s as unreliable as ever. Haven’t looked at 6z yet but for the past couple days it has flipped back and forth on early next week being 75 or 60 for highs

 

[SD]

HrrrV4/nam suggest some isolated severe storms in NC/VA/SC on Wed, nice soundings for some convection with some stronger downdrafts and hodos supportive of mini supercell structures, overall lapse rates are very poor and will likely keep it marginal at best View attachment 51922View attachment 51923View attachment 51924View attachment 51925

I'm coming around to this idea

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s some noice cape for November

 

[accu35]

My work is playing Christmas music

 

[FallsLake]

So the 12z GFS and Canadian continue to show the cool down for next week (6-7 days). Nothing unusual but it could provide many with a light freeze. **the way I see it, you take every little victory you can get.

 

[SD]

@Rain Cold happy Thanksgiving

 

[jackendrickwx]

Pretty good agreement here between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF. Both show fropa on Monday. Side question: does the euro have a cold bias in the 8-10 range?

 

[SD]

Pretty good agreement here between 12z GFS and 0z ECMWF. Both show fropa on Monday. Side question: does the euro have a cold bias in the 8-10 range?

So far this cold season in that time period when we have a cold shot it's been about 3-5 degrees too cold on highs but about the same too warm with lows

 

[J.C.]

Some decent agreement on highs Tuesday.

Icon


GFS


CMC

 

[SD]

Quite the DP drop for the weekend on the Euro. Remember a few days ago these were near 70. Saturday going to be ugly wherever we can overlap these low dews and cloud cover from ETA/S flow aloft

 

[Metwannabe]

Quite the DP drop for the weekend on the Euro. Remember a few days ago these were near 70. Saturday going to be ugly wherever we can overlap these low dews and cloud cover from ETA/S flow aloft

View attachment 51960
View attachment 51961

I love it and yes this was the Euro a few days ago....

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s kinda cold

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

That’s kinda cold View attachment 51965

Does that last for one day? LOL

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Does that last for one day? LOL

Maybe 2 or 3 days of freezing lows, super transient look at H5

 

[Tarheel1]

It’s thundering now! Can’t wait for snow in 7-10 days

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is possible the worst pattern you can ask for headed into our favorable time frame typical of a La Niña, we have a better shot at a hurricane here in the SE than a snow event in late November/early December, lol

 

[ryan1234]

This is possible the worst pattern you can ask for headed into our favorable time frame typical of a La Niña, we have a better shot at a hurricane here in the SE than a snow event in late November/early December, lol View attachment 51966View attachment 51967

Or some sort of significant severe weather outbreak.


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[smast16]

Quite the DP drop for the weekend on the Euro. Remember a few days ago these were near 70. Saturday going to be ugly wherever we can overlap these low dews and cloud cover from ETA/S flow aloft

View attachment 51960
View attachment 51961

SD Can you elaborate this for me? I'm not picking up what you're putting down!

 

[SD]

SD Can you elaborate this for me? I'm not picking up what you're putting down!

Previous runs of the Euro had dews in the 70s over the weekend, today's run in the 40s. With ETA still to the south and a strong S flow above the wedge someone is going to be looking at a cloudy drizzly Saturday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s

 

[Webberweather53]

This is possible the worst pattern you can ask for headed into our favorable time frame typical of a La Niña, we have a better shot at a hurricane here in the SE than a snow event in late November/early December, lol View attachment 51966View attachment 51967

If we could push the center of the ridge into Canada & have a s/w get stuck underneath it, we'd have a chance at a CAD pattern w/ the trough over New England but that's about it.