• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

1/16/18 - 6:16 pm
------------------------
NWS Atlanta
-----------------
".UPDATE...

Wintry mix making its way across north GA this early evening.
With temperatures quickly dropping behind the cold front (which is currently situated across NE GA down through the metro, south to Columbus), expect a fine line between rain/snow as the
precipitation continues to move south and east. Thus expecting the far northern tier of GA to see mainly snow over the next hour,
transitioning down to the metro between 7pm and 9pm. This
transition of rain to snow will continue to slowly move toward
Columbus around midnight, to Macon around 5am.

An area of concern is the possible mesoscale banding that could
set up across a portion of the area later this evening into the
overnight. This is due to the positively tilted trough, exiting
jet and low/mid level impulses allowing lift to be more enhanced.
This combined with fgen features showing a bit of instability
could result in localized higher snowfall amounts. Based on this
information and current model trends, current thinking is that
this region would be between LaGrange down toward Columbus then northeast toward Athens.

We will continue to monitor observations and high resolution model guidance and update as needed.
 
Any reports back in LA? Seems like they been hetting hammered for hrs
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Its even looking better for CAE Shawn!!
Click to expand...

Looks like NWS CAE nailed this so far with the GEFS depiction with the heavier axis right up there in their warning zone.

If things work out , heavier than planned, I can see that 0.3+ extending down to at least Newberry county.
 
Looks like were going to miss any real travel issues in most of BMX's CWA. Very few 1 inch reports will verify as well. Tough and rare scenario to try to forecast.
 
;)
farleydawg792 said:
1/16/18 - 6:16 pm
------------------------
NWS Atlanta
-----------------
".UPDATE...

Wintry mix making its way across north GA this early evening.
With temperatures quickly dropping behind the cold front (which is currently situated across NE GA down through the metro, south to Columbus), expect a fine line between rain/snow as the
precipitation continues to move south and east. Thus expecting the far northern tier of GA to see mainly snow over the next hour,
transitioning down to the metro between 7pm and 9pm. This
transition of rain to snow will continue to slowly move toward
Columbus around midnight, to Macon around 5am.

An area of concern is the possible mesoscale banding that could
set up across a portion of the area later this evening into the
overnight. This is due to the positively tilted trough, exiting
jet and low/mid level impulses allowing lift to be more enhanced.
This combined with fgen features showing a bit of instability
could result in localized higher snowfall amounts. Based on this
information and current model trends, current thinking is that
this region would be between LaGrange down toward Columbus then northeast toward Athens.

We will continue to monitor observations and high resolution model guidance and update as needed.
Click to expand...
If only someone had seen the coming! @deltadog03
 
DadOfJax said:
Looks like were going to miss any real travel issues in most of BMX's CWA. Very few 1 inch reports will verify as well. Tough and rare scenario to try to forecast.
Click to expand...

The refreeze is the problem. Not exactly the amounts. @John De Block said about that a couple days ago.
 
DadOfJax said:
Looks like were going to miss any real travel issues in most of BMX's CWA. Very few 1 inch reports will verify as well. Tough and rare scenario to try to forecast.
Click to expand...
Sounds like it may not be as bad as Jan 2014 in Birmingham. I know Spann was comparing this system to Jan 14.
 
The HRRR has decided to troll me by splitting my county as half snow and half rain at hour 16, and especially by initializing wrong. On a serious note, it looks like this area is fine, may start with rain/mix but change over. Like I said earlier, I'd say a half inch to an inch, maybe up to 2 in the northern parts of the CSRA.
 
Shawn said:
Looks like NWS CAE nailed this so far with the GEFS depiction with the heavier axis right up there in their warning zone.

If things work out , heavier than planned, I can see that 0.3+ extending down to at least Newberry county.
Click to expand...
Shawn, what's your opinion man. Youre the grandfather of the Midlands. Temps look dicey but what is your opinion on a inch of snow for let's say, Lexington and Richland counties.
 
My road turned white in the past hour or so. This does remind me of January '14 in my location, because we were at the very northern edge of the snow. The grassy areas just had a dusting, but the roads were impassable. Looks like that again here.
 
SCweather said:
Shawn, what's your opinion man. Youre the grandfather of the Midlands. Temps look dicey but what is your opinion on a inch of snow for let's say, Lexington and Richland counties.
Click to expand...

60% chance. It is highly dependent on what is going to happen with the forcing/jetstreaking. The SW flow looks okay at both the surface and mid levels currently.
 
BPATL said:
I am sure you're a great person, but read more and maybe post less until you get good info, this is an unfolding nowcast event that will likely over perform..
Click to expand...

Based on ground truth, most places arent going to verify 1inch forecasts. Ground truth is as good as any info out there.
 
Y'all remember a few years back, Dallas , TX was forecast to get an inch and ended up with 12"!? That's the kind of busts that give you hope! It gave a lot of us wintry precip too
 
DadOfJax said:
Based on ground truth, most places arent going to verify 1inch forecasts. Ground truth is as good as any info out there.
Click to expand...
They would not declare a state of emergency if it was going to be just an inch of snow. Trust me there will be more than that in places, especially the 85 corridor and East Central AL.
 
hlvSpbH.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top