Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM looking beast mode at 21
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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
SREF 15Z mean has 0.50" snow KATL, 0.25" AHN/GVL and 1.2" Rome. The implication is near 1" NW ATL burbs like Cobb. For ATL area, I'm going with the actual amounts that are between these on the higher end and half these amounts on the lower end. So, I'm going with 0.25-0.5" south metro ATL and 0.50-1" north metro ATL favoring Cobb and vicinity. Of course with something like this, it could easily come in drier than the low end of these numbers. I'm going with 0.25" GVL. I'm going with a 0.10" to 0.25" AHN.
Edited for AHN
Edited for AHN
NoSnowATL
Member
Too much dry air?? I guess
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Looks worse than 12z at 27!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Boy tomorrow and Wednesday would have been a good day to be in Lafayette. My family there is going to get a nice little hit.
Ron Burgundy
Member
He is such a joy.
He's right in saying this won't be an epic and historic snowfall. Nothing supports that this time. This is nothing like the lengthy and very moist Dec 2017 setup.
Well there you have it ladies and gentlemen expect 2 foot of snow tomorrow
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Has he been reading my posts? LOL. I don't see dry air. He has to be wrong unless 90% humidity is dry air to him.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Bahahahaha the funny part about this is that time had low QPF too. We might be seeing similar conditions in the northern parts of GA/AL (and no I don't mean Atlanta).
(this might be talking about Dec. 2017 though)
olhausen
Member
Most likely because temps will be much colder and all precipitation will fall as snow. A lot of the snow will be falling with temps in the teens and even low teens for my area anyways. Therefore It won’t take much moisture at all to lay down a good snowpack with the low temps that are forecasted.
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Where did you find this I can't find it anywhere
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
RAH discussion:
Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents. Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9
hour window of precip expected thereafter before significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending precip.
Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30 percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios
are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern-Virginia bordering counties.
Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents. Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9
hour window of precip expected thereafter before significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending precip.
Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30 percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios
are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern-Virginia bordering counties.
Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
NAM has the snow hole.
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM much drier
Stormlover
Member
RollTide18
Member
Nice
