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Wintry More SE Snow ? (1/16-1/18)

Brick Tamland said:
RAH discussion:

Confidence is increasing slightly as NWP model guidance is starting to come into better agreement in both timing and liquid equivalents. Current timing suggest precip onset and transition to all snow between 06 to 09z in the Triad, around 12z(daybreak) in the Triangle, and then 12 to 15z in the east/southeast, with a 6 to 9
hour window of precip expected thereafter before significant/aggressive drying aloft overwhelms the area, ending precip.

Deterministic model guidance is right in line with the the SREF ensemble mean of a 0.10 to 0.20" liquid qpf across the area, 20-30 percent of which will likely not go to frozen accumulation owing to rain or rain/snow mix expected at onset. However, given strong column cooling, once precip changes over to all snow, snow ratios
are apt to be high, averaging 12-15:1. This would result in the potential for a swath of light snowfall accumulations across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area, with amounts ranging from a half inch along a line extending from Albemarle to Southern Pine to Goldsboro, to as much 1.5 to 2.0" across the far northern-Virginia bordering counties.

Potential other scenarios that could unfold are: If more progressive solutions similar to that of the GFS verify, which quickly dries out the <-10C ice nucleation layer, we could see more sleet or snow mixed with sleet, which would significantly reduce snow accumulations across the area. Barring no major forecast/model changes, a winter weather advisory will likely be needed for these areas for Tuesday night through Wednesday evening.
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Lol the more progressive GFS solution is likely not happening, not sure why it's even worth legitimate consideration at this point. Definitely a little intrigued by the fact that there could be mixing even in the Triad, even though I'm not saying there's no chance of that happening I think the threat for mixing is being oversold a bit by NWS RAH NW of RDU in the discussion.
 
GaWx said:
He's right in saying this won't be an epic and historic snowfall. Nothing supports that this time. This is nothing like the lengthy and very moist Dec 2017 setup.
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Understood. It’s just the pleasure he seems to take in throwing cold water on every potential snow event is grating. He did the same with the December event and then blew off the bust like it never happened.
 
namconus_asnow_seus_14.png
 
Guys, the SREF gets drug through the mud here. It's not that great...

Another snippet from CAE discussion:
The cold front will push into the forecast area late Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning with the upper trough
crossing the region during the day Wednesday. This looks like a
case of the moisture (what little there is) being chased by the
colder air which historically does not result in much, if any,
snow accumulation for our area.
 
Here is development of the band over AR with latest hrrr vs 18z nam...been watching hrrr and been trying to get band going by 02-03z past several runs. I'm also interested and seeing if rgem improves from last run or is similar.
hrrr_ref_frzn_scus_fh4-8.gif namconus_ref_frzn_scus_fh5-9.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Our s/w is trying to separate from the main stream flow more this run by 39 hours, that on it's own is more conducive to getting a cut-off ULL much sooner in the long run. Also encouraging to see heights continue to rise over New England
View attachment 2970
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Happy to see we're still headed in the right direction and positive trends.
 
There it is. NAM is going to be a nice quick hitter for everyone except people near Lake Lanier for some reason. It's temps aren't as bad as some of the others but we know on the moisture. Might be too much.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Understood. It’s just the pleasure he seems to take in throwing cold water on every potential snow event is grating. He did the same with the December event and then blew off the bust like it never happened.
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Yeah, he's a jerk in that way. I never liked him when I was there. Ken Cook was easily my favorite of the longterm locals. When he was concerned, I knew there was a problem. I also thought Chris Holcomb was ( still is) good. Way way back I really liked Steve Browne (1980s) on WXIA.
 
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